South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Co-operation, Ronald Lamola, has warned that the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran is already disrupting global markets and will directly increase fuel and food prices across Southern Africa, straining public finances and threatening vital foreign investment.
Lamola delivered the warning during a Southern African Development Community (SADC) Council of Ministers meeting on Thursday. He stated that the geopolitical tensions, which began with the US-Iran war on 28 February, are sending “shock waves” through regional supply chains and energy markets. “The current geopolitical climate… is already sending shock waves through our societies, threatening supply chains and energy shocks,” Lamola said.
The warning highlights the region’s economic vulnerability. Southern African nations are net importers of petroleum and fertiliser. Consequently, any sustained rise in global oil prices quickly translates into higher transport costs, which in turn push up the price of groceries and other goods. Lamola noted that beyond the direct impact of fuel, a spike in fertiliser costs—a key input for agriculture—will further drive up food prices and compromise food security across the region.
A significant secondary concern raised by the minister is the potential redirection of investment from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Lamola cautioned that these nations, facing their own security pressures, may reassess overseas investments in African infrastructure, critical minerals, energy, and technology, prioritising internal defence spending instead. “There is a growing concern that Gulf states may reassess overseas investment… as their priorities shift towards internal defence and security considerations,” he said.
The minister was direct about the human and fiscal consequences. “We will not emerge unscathed from this. Our public finances are likely to come under even greater strain and it’s our people who will bear the cost,” Lamola stated, referring to squeezed state budgets already grappling with multiple socio-economic pressures.
The assessment underscores how distant geopolitical conflicts can rapidly permeate regional economies, particularly those reliant on commodity imports. For SADC, the dual pressure of inflated import bills for oil and fertiliser, coupled with the risk of reduced Gulf capital, presents a complex challenge to economic stability and development agendas. The situation calls for coordinated regional strategies to mitigate supply chain risks and explore alternative sources for critical imports as the conflict’s global economic fallout continues.
