The head of TotalEnergies has warned that a Middle East conflict lasting more than six months would inflict severe consequences on the global economy, due to the critical disruption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of the French energy major, stated that while economies can manage a short-term disruption of three to four months by drawing on existing inventories, a prolonged crisis beyond six months would cause widespread damage. “If it’s more than six months, we will have some real impacts. All the economies of the world will be damaged,” Pouyanne said in an interview with CGTN on the sidelines of the China Development Forum in Beijing.
His warning follows Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world’s seaborne oil typically passes. Pouyanne noted that the current blockage prevents about 10 million barrels of oil per day from exiting the Gulf, creating a shortage that cannot be easily replaced. “And we cannot find the oil elsewhere in the planet,” he added.
The situation has heightened concerns among governments about rising inflation and slower economic growth. Pouyanne’s comments underscore the fragility of global energy security and the acute sensitivity of oil markets to geopolitical instability in the region.
In related developments, Nigeria’s minister has indicated the country’s readiness to increase oil production to help offset global supply shortfalls, highlighting efforts by other producers to mitigate the crisis. However, Pouyanne stressed that such measures are insufficient to counter a prolonged closure of such a vital maritime route.
The CEO’s assessment serves as a stark reminder of the direct link between Middle East stability and worldwide economic health, urging a swift diplomatic resolution to prevent deeper, long-term financial harm.
