Pakistan’s Failed Afghanistan Policy Fuels Militant Blowback

Pakistan’s long-standing policy of shaping Afghanistan’s politics to align with its own security interests is facing severe strain, as militancy and historical disputes fuel renewed cross-border tensions.

For over 40 years, Islamabad has actively sought influence in Kabul, from supporting mujahideen during the Soviet-Afghan War to backing the Taliban in the 1990s and after the 2021 fall of the Western-backed government. This approach was driven by the concept of “strategic depth” to counter Indian influence and ensure a friendly regime in Kabul.

However, that strategy is now backfiring. Militant groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), once seen as proxies, have intensified attacks inside Pakistan. Islamabad attributes these attacks to sanctuaries in Afghanistan, a claim denied by the Taliban government. In response, Pakistan has conducted cross-border military strikes, increased troop deployments, and expelled large numbers of Afghan refugees—actions that address immediate security threats but not underlying causes.

A core structural issue is Pakistan’s historical difficulty in accepting Afghanistan as a fully sovereign state capable of independent foreign policy. This tension is symbolized by the unresolved Durand Line dispute. While Pakistan views the 1893 border with British India as settled, many Afghans consider it an artificial colonial imposition. Recent efforts to fence and militarize the border have exacerbated local grievances on both sides.

Analysts argue that Pakistan’s policy has been characterized by short-term tactical maneuvers rather than a commitment to long-term regional stability. Reliance on proxies has often generated cycles of blowback and deepened mutual distrust.

The current crisis underscores a fundamental reality: sustainable security cannot be achieved through coercion or by attempting to control Afghan politics. A stable bilateral relationship would require acknowledging Afghan sovereignty and pursuing cooperative regional diplomacy. Observers note that acceptance of Afghanistan’s independent trajectory is a necessary step for both nations to move from confrontation toward coexistence.

Miriam Wardak is a former advisor to the Afghan President. The views expressed are her own.