The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects to provide up to $50 billion in immediate financial assistance to countries affected by the Middle East war, with the exact amount depending on whether a fragile ceasefire holds. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that if the ceasefire remains in place, demand for IMF balance-of-payments support would be closer to the lower end of that range.
The crisis has already triggered significant economic disruptions, including supply chain bottlenecks and sharp increases in food and energy prices. The IMF estimates that at least 45 million people face heightened food insecurity due to transport and supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict.
The IMF will revise its global growth forecast for 2026 downward, citing the war’s impact on energy costs and economic activity. Even under a best-case scenario, Georgieva warned that infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, and loss of market confidence would leave lasting “scarring effects” on the global economy.
Low-income energy importers with limited fiscal space are expected to be hit hardest. Georgieva highlighted the vulnerability of Pacific Island nations, which rely on long supply chains and now face uncertainty over fuel deliveries.
The World Bank reported that Middle Eastern economies—excluding Iran—are expected to see growth slow to just 1.8 percent in 2026, down from 4 percent the previous year. This represents a 2.4 percentage point downgrade from pre-war forecasts. The bank described the economic toll as “serious and immediate.”
The IMF also plans to revise its global inflation forecast upward due to oil price shocks and supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict. In response, the IMF and World Bank have formed a coordination group to address energy market impacts, with a high-level meeting scheduled for Monday.
The annual IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington are focusing heavily on the war’s economic fallout, with discussions on food security, debt sustainability, and the need for coordinated international support. The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report, expected to be released during the meetings, is likely to highlight rising government debt as countries grapple with repeated economic shocks.
An IMF report on the economic costs of war found that output in conflict zones typically falls by 3 percent at the outset and continues declining for years. The report warned that low-income countries are especially at risk of food insecurity and may require increased external support, even as such assistance has been declining.
