Nigeria’s misery index has jumped by 11.9 percentage points to 73.05, according to recent findings. The misery index measures economic distress felt by ordinary people, combining the risk of (or actual) joblessness with rising living costs. It is calculated by adding the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to the inflation rate, providing a yardstick of a nation’s economic hardship. The concept was created by economist Arthur Okun. Professor Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University later refined the model, defining the index as the sum of the inflation rate, unemployment rate, and interest rate, minus the year‑on‑year percentage change in real GDP per capita. Because both unemployment and inflation undermine economic well‑being, their combined value serves as a useful indicator of overall economic health—the higher the index, the greater the misery experienced by average citizens.
In 2021, Nigeria began 2022 with a misery index of 61.15, based on an inflation rate of 15.92 %, an interest rate of 11.5 %, an employment rate of 33.3 %, and a 3.6 % GDP growth. Since then, several factors have driven the index upward. Repeated hikes in the Monetary Policy Rate—most recently to 17.5 % in January 2023—have contributed significantly. Inflation has also surged; the National Bureau of Statistics reported a rise to 21.82 % in January 2023, up 0.48 percentage points from December 2022, as the country grappled with persistent fuel and naira crises. Additionally, real GDP per capita has declined. Macrotrends data show Nigeria’s GDP per capita at $2,066, with an annual growth rate of –0.43 %. Applying Hanke’s model yields a current misery index of 73.05, an increase of 11.9 points.
Hanke, who publishes an annual misery index covering 156 countries, noted that Nigerians were more miserable in 2021 than in 2020. The country moved from 15th to 11th place among the world’s most miserable nations, ranking fourth in Africa behind Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Angola. The five least miserable countries were Brunei, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, and Japan, while the United States ranked 95th, making it the 14th least miserable among the 108 nations listed.
Speaking with The …, Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, identified rising inflation as a key driver eroding Nigerians’ quality of life. He urged the government to pinpoint the main sources of inflation and to devise viable solutions to the unemployment crisis that has pushed millions below the poverty line. “One major variable in the misery index is inflation. If we can tackle inflation, that will help reduce the misery index. Inflation usually leads to a decline in purchasing power, which makes people poorer, generally. Some of us have always argued that the worst enemy of the poor is inflation. So, we need to identify the key drivers of inflation, starting from the ways and means the financing of the Central Bank, which is high‑powered money,” Yusuf said.
The World Bank’s latest poverty assessment report echoed these concerns, noting that sluggish growth, low human capital, labour‑market weaknesses, and exposure to shocks are hindering poverty reduction in Nigeria. The report estimates that four in ten Nigerians live below the national poverty line. “It is clear that much needs to be done to help lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty, including boosting health and education, bolstering productive jobs, and expanding social protection,” said Shubham Chaudhuri, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria.
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