The average cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice for a family of five rose to ₦30,435 in March 2026, according to SBM Intelligence’s Jollof Index Q1 2026 report. The 19.4 percent six‑month increase reflects the impact of higher global oil prices and transport costs on Nigerian households.
SBM Intelligence linked the price surge to the escalation of conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran in late February 2026. Within weeks, crude oil prices breached $110 per barrel, pushing Brent from the low‑$70s to nearly $120. In Lagos, gasoline prices climbed to ₦1,325 per litre and diesel to over ₦1,500, while transport fares on some routes tripled. Although Nigeria is an oil producer, the country relies heavily on imported refined fuel, leaving it vulnerable to such energy shocks.
The Jollof Index tracks the cost of cooking a standard pot of jollof rice for five people and is used as a proxy for household inflation. At ₦30,435, the cost represents more than 40 percent of Nigeria’s minimum wage, highlighting an emerging affordability crisis.
Price increases were uneven across the country. Abuja’s Wuse II market recorded the highest price at ₦36,750, Lagos saw a 23 percent monthly rise, and Port Harcourt experienced the steepest six‑month jump at 55.1 percent. SBM Intelligence attributed the spikes to rising logistics expenses, inadequate infrastructure and insecurity along food‑supply routes.
National data from the National Bureau of Statistics show headline inflation reaching 15.38 percent in March, with month‑on‑month inflation rising to 4.18 percent. Food inflation remained high, especially in rural areas where transport bottlenecks intensified price pressures. Surveys indicated that many Nigerians are cutting meal portions, substituting cheaper protein, and switching from gas to charcoal. Some households are buying food in smaller quantities, skipping meals or turning to backyard farming to stretch limited budgets.
A comparison with Ghana revealed divergent trends. While Nigeria’s food costs continued to climb, Ghana’s prices showed modest stabilization despite exposure to the same global shocks. The report noted that the cost of a jollof pot in Nigeria rose from $14.49 in 2023 to $21.93 in 2026, with the index reaching 151.3 in March – its highest level on record.
SBM Intelligence concluded that the Iran‑related oil shock exposed deeper structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s economy, including dependence on fuel imports, weak logistics, and insecurity in agricultural regions. The firm called for urgent reforms, such as investment in transport infrastructure, creation of strategic fuel reserves and strengthening of domestic agricultural systems, to mitigate future price volatility and protect household purchasing power.
