Vietnam has substantially increased its imports of refined oil products from Nigeria and other Asian suppliers since the outbreak of the Iran‑related conflict, a move that has helped offset a sharp decline in crude deliveries to its refineries. The surge in imports has softened the impact of the Gulf crisis on the Southeast Asian economy but has also widened the country’s trade deficit and pushed consumer inflation above the government’s target.
Customs data analyzed by Reuters show that in the two‑month period ending in April, Vietnam’s volume of refined‑oil imports rose by nearly 17 % compared with the same period a year earlier, while the dollar value of those imports jumped 144 %. The increase came as shipments from traditional sources such as Singapore and China fell sharply.
South Korea emerged as a major alternative supplier, boosting its shipments to Vietnam by more than 60 % year‑on‑year to 610,000 metric tonnes, accounting for roughly one‑third of the country’s total refined‑oil imports. Malaysian supplies almost doubled to 403,000 tonnes, overtaking China as Vietnam’s third‑largest provider. Chinese deliveries, which had previously met more than half of Vietnam’s jet‑fuel requirements, declined by about 17 % over the same period, a reduction that hit the aviation sector hard.
Vietnam managed to secure limited exemptions from China’s fuel‑export restrictions that were imposed immediately after the Iran war began on 28 February. These exemptions allowed 189,000 metric tonnes of Chinese fuel to reach Vietnam in the two months, although shipments fell sharply from March to April.
Domestic refiners have secured crude supplies for several more weeks, but analysts warn that a protracted conflict in Iran could create a “very complicated” energy situation. Nguyen Thanh Son, a Hanoi‑based energy analyst and former executive with state‑owned coal miner Vinacomin, highlighted the risk of extended supply disruptions.
Crude oil imports overall slipped 5 % in March and April compared with the previous year, as Vietnam was forced to replace shipments from its top crude supplier, Kuwait, whose deliveries were hindered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While Kuwait remained the main source of crude in March, no Kuwaiti cargoes arrived in April, prompting Vietnam’s largest refinery at Nghi Son to turn to the United States, Africa, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria for supply. Preliminary data from ship‑tracking firm Kpler indicate that May imports have already exceeded those of the prior two months, with new cargoes arriving from Oman and Angola.
Higher domestic crude production has mitigated some of the shock, but Nguyen Quoc Thap, chairman of the Vietnam Petroleum Association, cautioned that output cannot be ramped up quickly enough to fully offset external supply constraints.
The shift in Vietnam’s fuel‑import strategy underscores the broader ripple effects of the Iran conflict on global energy markets. African oil exporters, particularly Nigeria, stand to benefit from increased demand as Asian buyers diversify away from traditional Gulf sources. Monitoring how Vietnam balances its trade deficit, inflation pressures and energy security will be essential for understanding the longer‑term consequences of the war‑induced market re‑configuration.
