It is almost uncanny how my thoughts on the economy often find their way to the public stage. This time, it is about investment. Nairametrics’ recent analysis has sparked a fierce debate, with pundits from all sides weighing in. But I see the issue from a different, perhaps deeper, angle. Weeks ago, I called a sharp officer at our Bureau of Statistics to ask how investment is captured in GDP calculations. The standard formula—C + I + G + Nx—treats investment as a key driver. My concern was simple: we are not taking domestic investment seriously enough. For a largely informal economy like ours, this oversight is a missed opportunity.
Let us start with the current uproar over Foreign Direct Investment into Nigeria. Nairametrics reported that of the $10 billion attracted in Q1 2026, $6.5 billion went into Treasury Bills. They also noted that of $45 billion in 2025, $13 billion flowed into money market instruments. Their conclusion: foreign investors are playing it safe, seeking short-term gains. They argued that Nigeria needs investments that build factories, hire workers, and transfer technology. Fair points. But here is where the analysis falters. It is easy to sit outside government and point out flaws. I respect Nairametrics for its professionalism, but I urge the platform to rise above the noise. They cannot afford to join the chorus of one-sided criticism.
I needed a term for this popular style of analysis—one that cherry-picks disadvantages while ignoring upsides. I asked AI for help, and it offered a few labels: cherry-picking, negativity bias, or appeal to consequences. In policy analysis, these fallacies distort reality. When inflation crashed in 2025, many farmers complained about grain imports, even as food prices dropped. I reminded them that 90% of Nigerians are not farmers. The policy brought relief. This is the same trap Nairametrics fell into.
The global economy is not what it used to be. Mr. Trump’s protectionism, tariffs on allies, and pressure on American entrepreneurs have reshaped trade. Canada’s Mark Carney spoke of “Middle Powers” uniting against the US. The Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement is gaining traction as we realize no one is coming to save us. At home, President Tinubu has pushed for self-reliance: manufacturing exports jumped 50%, solar panels worth N87 billion went to West Africa and the US, and Dangote is now the world’s top exporter of JetA1 fuel. Three lithium-processing plants with over $1.2 billion in investment are springing up. Nairametrics ignored these wins.
Investment, as Investopedia defines it, is an asset acquired to generate income. We have been obsessed with foreign investment for too long. But in an informal economy, domestic investment may be growing faster. Every worker who opens a shop for his wife or adds rooms for rent is investing. Yet we ignore this because it is hard to measure. Foreign investment is easy—it flows through the Central Bank. But the real story is Nigerian companies taking over. Seplat is the new Mobil. Renaissance is the new Shell. Indigenous firms now produce over 50% of our daily crude oil. If these companies expand, is that foreign or domestic investment? We must stop deifying foreign capital and start respecting our own.
Foreign investors are smart. They do not need convincing. The more we highlight negatives, the less attractive we become. Americans do not parade their 40,000 gun deaths. We must show our strengths: infrastructure, human capital, and peace. Turkish, Chinese, Lebanese, and Indian investors are already here, often becoming Nigerian in spirit. Even portfolio investments—hot money—are not useless. They build confidence in our financial system, encouraging local banks to lend and stock markets to soar.
Domestic investment is the real engine. The National Bureau of Statistics calculates it as Gross Capital Formation, but this misses the informal sector. We need primary data. States like Ogun, Niger, Ekiti, and Lagos are transforming. Real estate is now the third-largest GDP contributor. Billionaire Jim Ovia recently said real estate beats banking. We must measure what matters: tax reforms that reduce harassment, local content in contracts, and support for small businesses. If we captured domestic investment accurately, we could add 10% to GDP.
Two fun facts to remember: every investment you make in Nigeria, no matter how small, advances your country. And if we measured domestic investment right, our economy would look much stronger.
‘Tope Fasua is the special adviser to the President on Economic Matters.
