The world exhaled when the United States and Iran finally struck a ceasefire on a Friday that seemed to halt a four-month war waged by Washington and Israel against Tehran. Four previous attempts had crumbled into dust. This one, however, holds for 60 days—at least for now.
The agreement carries heavy burdens. Iran has loosened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, reopening it to oil tankers. The US has lifted its blockade, with the Treasury Department authorizing the production, sale, and delivery of Iranian oil, even to American buyers, within this window. Mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Switzerland, the pact goes beyond halting missile exchanges and trade freezes. Its true test lies in forging a “roadmap towards reaching a final deal within 60 days,” as the mediators noted, praising steps taken so far.
Immediate impacts are clear. Crude oil prices have dropped from a peak of $118 per barrel to between $79 and $72.48. US gasoline, once at $5 per gallon, now hovers around $3.93. Global economies are seeing gradual cost reductions. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows, was blockaded during the conflict, causing the greatest disruption in history, according to the International Energy Agency. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported that 284 ships passed through the strait from June 18, carrying crude, LNG, and fertilizer. Before the war, 100 ships crossed daily. The current numbers offer cold comfort.
Iran must reaffirm it will not develop nuclear weapons, then dispose of stockpiled enriched materials under a mechanism agreed with the US, down blended on site under IAEA supervision. The US and its regional partners will craft a plan granting at least $300 billion to Iran for post-war reconstruction. The final deal within 60 days is critical for global macro-economic stability, especially for nations like Nigeria, where inflation has ravaged lives.
The triangular peace deal includes a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah entered the conflict after Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed by an Israeli strike. Deep differences persist: a day after the US-Iran ceasefire, Israel killed 67 in Lebanon, claiming a newly discovered underground fortress. Hezbollah retaliated, killing five, vowing to resist any Israeli expansion. A “De-confliction Cell” has been inserted into the agreement to ensure compliance. Communication lines between the US and Iran aim to clear misunderstandings.
Yet, both sides have breached the agreement with military strikes on facilities between last Friday and Sunday. Oil experts remain cautious. Stocks held in storage tanks and on ships over four months could lead to supply chain disruptions once exhausted. Gargantuan oil facilities in Gulf states—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait—were destroyed in Iran’s retaliatory strikes, accused of complicity for hosting US bases. Repairs are not quick fixes.
Beneath the polished language of American diplomacy lies an inescapable question: Why did President Trump launch the self-defeating “Operation Epic Fury” at the moment when a third round of negotiations was underway? The conflict has killed over 7,300 Iranians. Few paradoxes in geopolitics are as striking as the strange grammar of US foreign policy. The extraordinary leverage of the Anglo-Zionist lobby may have shaped strategic choices. How Israel repeatedly induces the US to internalize its regional ambitions and sustain a doctrine of permanent war remains an under-examined puzzle.
The Pentagon says $29 billion was spent on the war. The White House requested $87.6 billion for “urgent needs,” even as lawmakers criticize Trump. Humanitarian challenges in Iran, Lebanon, and the Gulf are daunting. “Nobody had expected or predicted the attacks when we had finished a third round of negotiations in Geneva,” Iranian ambassador Alireza Salarian reminded after the US missile strike. Trump’s volte-face validates the belief that all wars end at the negotiating table. The return of UN Nuclear Inspectors to Iran should inform him of the primacy of reason and altruism in statecraft. Trump should bury his megalomania and give peace a chance—for a breather to humanity.
