Kenya has placed 18 counties on heightened alert and activated multi-agency emergency teams in preparation for a potentially strong El Niño event forecast to bring above-normal rainfall from October.
The Ministry of Interior and National Administration said the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority projects an 81 per cent chance of a strong El Niño, with a 97 per cent probability that its effects could persist into early next year. The warning has prompted authorities to map areas most vulnerable to flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks, drought, infrastructure damage and displacement as part of efforts to mitigate anticipated impacts.
The National Disaster Operations Centre has identified counties across the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions as facing the highest vulnerability. Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu have been classified as high-risk urban centres, with authorities warning of flooding, blocked drainage systems, pressure on infrastructure and disruptions to essential services.
In the Coast region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale are vulnerable to flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and infrastructure damage. The ministry warned that some communities could be displaced if the anticipated rains materialise, with risks compounded by rising water levels and damage to roads and other critical infrastructure.
The Lake Basin counties of Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori face flooding, landslides, increased disease outbreak risks and displacement. Kisumu, also listed as a high-risk urban centre, could see additional pressure from flooding and blocked drainage systems.
The assessment identifies Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok in the Rift Valley as vulnerable to a combination of drought, flash floods and landslides, with anticipated livestock losses and food insecurity. The government noted that while El Niño is commonly associated with heavy rainfall, some areas could simultaneously face water and food insecurity depending on local conditions.
In North Eastern Kenya, Garissa, Wajir and Mandera face drought, water scarcity, livestock losses, poor pasture and food insecurity. The government said counties have been prioritised according to their vulnerability to different risks, though the list is not considered final. More areas may be included if experts consider them vulnerable to El Niño risks.
National and county emergency response teams have been placed on high alert, with personnel being briefed on their roles ahead of the anticipated weather conditions. The preparations aim to avoid a repeat of the widespread disruption caused by previous extreme weather events, including flooding, infrastructure destruction, community displacement and service interruptions.