Lagos was pivotal to Bola Tinubu’s victory in last month’s Nigerian presidential election, but the megacity could cause a stir on Saturday by voting for an opposition governor. Three weeks after 25 million people cast ballots in a contest now challenged by the three main opposition parties over fraud allegations, Nigerians are once again heading to the polls. This time, Africa’s most populous country will elect governors in 28 of its 36 states—while the remaining states have already held by‑elections—and choose representatives for state assemblies.
One state is set to stand out: Lagos, the bustling coastal hub of roughly 20 million people and the economic nerve centre of the nation and the region. Lagos is also a cultural powerhouse, nurturing internationally successful Afrobeats stars such as Burna Boy and Tems, and hosting Nollywood—one of the world’s largest film production centres alongside India’s Bollywood and Hollywood. Known as the “centre of excellence,” Lagos has long been Bola Tinubu’s fiefdom. The president‑elect served as governor of the state, which includes Lagos city, from 1999 to 2007. Dubbed the “godfather of Lagos,” Tinubu built the political influence that propelled him to the presidency on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket. As journalist Yusuf Omotayo wrote in *The Republic*, “Since 2007, Tinubu has had a hand in the emergence of all the governors of Lagos.” This includes the current governor, Babajide Sanwo‑Olu, who is seeking a second term. Sanwo‑Olu has sometimes been dismissed as a “puppet” by local media, and Omotayo suggests that Tinubu’s long‑standing sway may be tested on Saturday as Lagos gears up for a historic governorship election.
While Tinubu, 70, won the largest number of votes nationwide in the February 25 presidential election, he lost his home state of Lagos to opposition candidate Peter Obi. The 61‑year‑old from southeast Nigeria enjoys strong support among young voters, a demographic that gave him 10 000 more votes than Tinubu in Lagos. Obi’s supporters and his Labour Party now hope to win the gubernatorial race on March 18. “The masses are asking for a chance for better governance and a change in the mediocre and strong‑handed system that has been bestowed upon them year after year,” said Olanipekun, a 28‑year‑old voter. He blames Tinubu and Sanwo‑Olu for the city’s housing shortage and chronic public‑transport problems that cause massive traffic jams. Olanipekun intends to vote for Obi’s party, believing “there is a room to overturn things.” Others are backing Labour Party candidate Gbadebo Rhodes‑Vivour, a 40‑year‑old architect from an influential Lagos family who promises a departure from previous administrations. Rhodes‑Vivour told AFP that his government would end the “state capture” of “resources to one man (and) his family,” insisting that state resources must be used to uplift the people of Lagos.
During his campaign, the energetic Rhodes‑Vivour frequently referenced his participation in the #EndSARS protests of 2020, when young people took to the streets against police brutality and demanded better governance. The movement was brutally halted in October 2020 when police and soldiers opened fire on peaceful protesters at the Lekki tollgate in Lagos, leaving many traumatized and vowing to channel their anger into the 2023 polls. Analysts say that event and the government’s handling of it largely explain the youth’s support for Obi. Whether that popularity will translate into a governorship win and diminish Tinubu’s influence in the state remains uncertain. A decisive factor will be voter turnout, which could be low as many young people feel disillusioned by the presidential election’s conduct. “Go vote? What’s the point?” said 23‑year‑old student Damola. “It was a rigged election on the 25th; they’ll manipulate the results on Saturday.” The electoral commission has denied claims of rigging but has acknowledged technical glitches, including the slow uploading of electronic results.
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