As Saturday, March 18, approaches, political observers warn that the redrawing of Nigeria’s electoral map that began with the February 23 presidential and National Assembly elections could continue. The outcome will determine whether the “gladiators” of various parties retain their political kingdoms or are dethroned at the polls.
Governor Nasir El‑Rufai’s Kaduna State offers a striking example. In the February 25 elections, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) dealt a severe blow to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar defeated APC’s Bola Tinubu in the state, garnering 554,360 votes to Tinubu’s 399,293, while Labour Party’s Peter Obi came third with 294,494 votes. Under El‑Rufai, who has governed since 2015, the APC lost all three senatorial seats to the PDP and saw the opposition win 10 of the state’s 16 House of Representatives seats.
In the Central North senatorial district, PDP’s Lawal Usman won with 225,066 votes, defeating former chief of staff and budget commissioner Abdullahi Sani of the APC, who received 182,035 votes. Labour Party candidate Ibrahim Sani placed third with 87,510 votes, and New Nigeria Peoples Party’s Umar Tijjani came fourth with 24,395 votes. In Kaduna North, PDP’s Khalid Mustapha secured the seat with 250,826 votes, beating incumbent APC senator Suleiman Kwari, who obtained 190,008 votes.
Against this backdrop, the upcoming governorship election is seen as both challenging and intriguing. Reports indicate that at least nine parties endorsed the PDP’s Isa Ashiru as a consensus candidate through the “Kaduna State Rescue and Rebuild Gubernatorial Candidates Forum.” The coalition—comprising the Young Progressives Party, Action Alliance, Allied Peoples Movement, All People’s Party, All Progressives Grand Alliance, National Rescue Movement, Accord Party, ADP, and Zenith Labour Party—argues that the APC’s Muslim‑Muslim ticket is a ploy to divide the state along religious lines. Forum chairman and YPP governorship candidate Sani Yaya said the endorsement reflects Ashiru’s suitability for the job.
Pundits note that, based on the presidential vote, the PDP could enjoy its strongest performance since 2015, potentially cruising to victory if the pattern holds. The APC, however, is banking on its Muslim‑Muslim ticket, a strategy that helped El‑Rufai in 2019, to support its candidate Uba Sani. Sani, a former political adviser to El‑Rufai and incumbent senator for Kaduna Central, dominates local radio with campaign jingles and promises to build on the governor’s seven‑and‑a‑half‑year record—though many, especially Christians, remain skeptical of El‑Rufai’s achievements.
While the main contest pits the APC against the PDP, the Labour Party’s growing influence cannot be ignored. Labour’s governorship candidate Jonathan Asake, former president of the Southern Kaduna Peoples Union, enjoys strong support in Southern Kaduna and presents an additional hurdle for both major parties.
In summary, Saturday’s election will likely be a showdown between the APC and the PDP, with the PDP aiming to capitalize on its recent presidential success and the APC striving to recover from the February 25 defeat and protect the outgoing governor from a political setback. The Labour Party’s presence adds another layer of complexity to an already high‑stakes race.
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