The Court of Appeal confirmed Ademola Adeleke as the governor of Osun State on Friday, but the dispute is far from over. According to Bola Bamigbola, Adele Adeleke’s predecessor, Adegboyega Oyetola, intends to take the battle to the Supreme Court.
The appellate judgment, delivered in Abuja, upheld Adeleke’s victory in the July 16, 2022 governorship election. While the decision was a relief for Adeleke and his supporters, it did not erase the legal challenges that had already been filed. A petition filed by Oyetola, the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, was still pending before an election‑petition tribunal when Adeleke assumed office. The tribunal, led by Justice Tertsea Kume, had earlier ruled on 27 January 2023 that over‑voting occurred in 749 units across ten local government areas. After discounting the irregular votes, Oyetola’s total fell to 314,921 and Adeleke’s to 290,266, leading the panel to declare Oyetola the winner. A minority judgment by Justice B. Ogbuli, however, dismissed the petition and affirmed Adeleke’s election, prompting protests from Adeleke’s supporters.
In the days before the appellate ruling, both camps exchanged heated remarks on social media, each confident in their legal position. The APC’s legal team not only reiterated the claim of over‑voting but also filed a cross‑appeal challenging the tribunal’s finding of forged testimonials in Adeleke’s favour. The PDP argued that the tribunal was biased, citing a reference to “Buga,” a song by Kiss Daniel, in the majority opinion as evidence of judicial dislike for Adeleke. The PDP further contended that the tribunal should have relied on data from the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the voter register, rather than the BVAS report from INEC’s backend server.
Justice Mohammed Lawal, who headed the Appeal panel, overturned the tribunal’s decision and reinstated Adeleke as governor. Oyetola has signalled his intention to appeal to the Supreme Court. Following the appellate verdict, many of Adeleke’s supporters invoked the 2018 governorship dispute—also between Oyetola and Adeleke—which ended with the Supreme Court upholding Oyetola’s victory. They argued that history was repeating itself, pointing to past patterns in Osun politics, such as former governor Rauf Aregbesola’s sweep of elective offices in 2011 shortly after taking office.
PDP chieftains Asimiyu Olaiya, Thomas Oladipo, and Foluso Orimadegun argued that Adeleke would survive the Supreme Court challenge, citing the historical precedent of repeated outcomes. Orimadegun emphasized that “nothing new is happening in Osun politics; it is history repeating itself.” He noted that in 2018 INEC returned Oyetola, Adeleke won at the tribunal, Oyetola succeeded on appeal, and the Supreme Court affirmed his win. He saw the same trajectory unfolding in the 2022 case.
APC supporters dismissed these predictions. Funso Fagbongbe, former Senior Special Assistant on Political Affairs, Rasaq Olaoye, an APC chieftain, and Titilayo Ogunremi argued that references to history were merely wishful thinking. Fagbongbe stressed that the Supreme Court would likely rule in Oyetola’s favour and that the two cases were not comparable.
Academic perspectives added nuance. Aderemi Ajala, Professor of Anthropology of Development at the University of Ibadan, cautioned that while history has causes, it is not deterministic. He argued that the outcome would depend on the actions of the two litigants, not on past patterns. Dr Misbau Alamu, Senior Law Lecturer at the University of Hull, described expectations of a repeat of history as “mere conjecture.”
Both parties’ spokespersons reiterated that their arguments would be based on the merits of their cases rather than historical analogies. APC spokesperson Kola Olabisi said the party had strong grounds for appeal and that “history is replete with similar cases,” while PDP spokesperson Oladele Olabamiji emphasized that the party’s confidence rested on the weight of evidence, not superstition.
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