Nigeria’s crude oil production rose slightly in March 2023, reaching about 1.6 million barrels per day (mbpd). This increase made Nigeria the biggest contributor to OPEC’s overall output growth last month, according to a Reuters survey. The 1.6 mbpd level also allowed the country to meet the federal government’s target for the first quarter of 2023.
In December 2022, Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed announced at the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update that the government aimed for crude production of 1.6 mbpd by Q1 2023. She linked this goal to efforts by stakeholders to improve oil‑production infrastructure and curb oil theft. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported output of 1.25 mbpd in January and 1.30 mbpd in February, with March’s figure approaching the 1.6 mbpd target. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) had previously disclosed similar numbers; its Chief Investment Officer Bala Wunti first mentioned the 1.6 mbpd level in December 2022, and NNPC Group CEO Mallam Mele Kyari confirmed a rise to 1.67 mbpd in February, though still short of OPEC’s 1.8 mbpd quota for Nigeria. Kyari credited the company’s “rectangular” security approach and the “Detect, Deter, Destroy and Recover” (3D) strategy for reducing crude theft and vandalism.
The Reuters survey tracked market supply using shipping data from external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows, and information from firms such as Petro‑Logistics and Kpler, as well as inputs from oil companies, OPEC, and consultants. It showed that Nigeria’s output increase occurred despite a 70,000 bpd drop in overall OPEC production in March, which stemmed from field maintenance in Angola and a temporary halt to some Iraqi exports. OPEC’s output was down more than 700,000 bpd from September and 70,000 bpd from February 2023. Angola recorded the largest decline (100,000 bpd) due to a limited export programme and maintenance on the Dalia stream, while Iraq’s output fell in the northern Kurdistan region after an export‑pipeline shutdown, partially offset by higher southern‑region exports. Overall, OPEC’s production fell short of its target by 930,000 bpd, largely because producers such as Nigeria and Angola lacked the capacity to meet agreed levels. In contrast, Gulf members—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates—maintained strong compliance with OPEC+ targets.
Petroleum expert and Oil+Gas Report publisher Toyin Akinosho advised the incoming administration to prioritize establishing an independent, powerful regulator for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, especially the upstream subsector. He argued that the regulator—whether the NUPRC or the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA)—should enjoy powers and independence comparable to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC). In an exclusive interview with THISDAY, Akinosho emphasized that robust, unbiased regulation is essential for ensuring companies adhere to operational rules and for boosting foreign‑exchange earnings. He warned that past weak regulation, exemplified by the defunct Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), contributed to widespread crude theft and called for a regulator that can operate without ministerial interference, ensuring fairness and transparency across the industry.
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