Madagascar, known for its political instabilities, is once again bracing itself for a tumultuous election season. On 16 November, the Malagasy people will head to the polls amidst growing protests and tensions. President Andry Rajoelina, who came to power in a coup in 2009, is seeking a third term, despite the constitutional reset caused by years of political upheaval.
Rajoelina’s road to presidency has been riddled with controversies and challenges. Last month, the Constitutional Court dismissed an attempt to disqualify him from the upcoming election due to his dual citizenship. However, Rajoelina defended himself, stating that he had obtained French citizenship in 2014 to ensure access to education for his children while he was barred from politics.
In addition to this, Rajoelina’s appointment of Prime Minister Christian Ntsay as interim president during the elections faced opposition objections. The constitution mandates that an interim government, led by the President of the Senate, should govern during the voting process. However, the incumbent declined the role for personal reasons, prompting Rajoelina to appoint his ally instead.
The opposition, represented by the Collective of Eleven, comprising former presidents Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina, has boycotted the election campaign citing Rajoelina’s biased conduct. Unsanctioned protest marches organized by the opposition have faced a heavy-handed response from the government, with tear gas, batons, and arbitrary arrests being employed.
Concerns about deteriorating human rights conditions have been expressed by various international organizations and countries, including the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and representatives of the European Union. The international community has denounced the disproportionate use of force against peaceful demonstrations.
The political unrest in Madagascar is concerning, with even the President of the National Assembly, Christine Razanamahasoa, admitting that the nation is in dire straits. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated poverty levels to be above 80%, projecting a stagnation in economic growth and an escalation in inflation rates.
Despite these challenges, President Rajoelina remains defiant, claiming that Madagascar’s economic growth surpasses the African average. He has dismissed criticisms of his handling of the opposition protests, emphasizing that freedom of expression and assembly are guaranteed. Rajoelina attributes the demonstrations and attempts to postpone the elections to his opponents’ desire for a political transition instead of a fair electoral process.
With just weeks until the election, the outcome remains uncertain. If the Collective of Eleven continues to boycott campaign events, tensions are likely to escalate. Mediation efforts by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have been declined by Rajoelina, who denies the existence of a crisis. The involvement of observer missions from the African Union, SADC, and the Francophonie is yet to be confirmed.
As the political landscape in Madagascar remains volatile, the fate of the nation hangs in the balance. Rajoelina’s resources and popularity may give him an advantage, but the ultimate direction the country will take is still uncertain.
This article was written by Peter Fabricius, a Consultant based in ISS Pretoria.
