Eskom officials have issued a sobering forecast, indicating that South Africa should brace for a sustained period of rolling blackouts between December and January, with only a handful of reprieves. The outlook for the rest of 2024 and early 2025 appears equally grim, marked by escalating demand and unsettling levels of unscheduled power cuts.
The recent projection by Eskom officials contradicts the optimistic assertions of Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa regarding the state of the country’s electricity system. Eskom officials presented their findings to the Consumer Goods Council of South Africa, divulging that the nation is poised to endure severe power disruptions during December and January.
A comprehensive 30-page presentation, dated 22nd November, offering insight into the looming power crisis, was made available to Daily Maverick.
According to the officials, the prevailing scenario anticipates blackouts ranging from stages 1 to 3 on a daily basis throughout December, with only three days exempt from such disruptions in the best-case scenario. However, this hinges on a reduction in unplanned breakdowns at Eskom power stations. Conversely, the worst-case forecast entails unceasing load shedding ranging from stages 4 to 6 each day in December. January is poised to witness a similar spectrum of best and worst-case scenarios.
Eskom’s forecast indicates a projected peak residual consumption of electricity between 23,000MW and 27,000MW during December and January. Concurrently, planned outages, stemming from the routine maintenance shutdown of generating units at power stations, are expected to amount to between 6,800MW and 10,100MW.
Compounding the situation further is the prevalence of unscheduled outages, usually attributed to…
