Elder statesman Alhaji Tanko Yakassai sat down with Ayoola Olasupo to discuss his expectations for the forthcoming elections, his fears of rigging, and his assessment of the current regime. He began by recalling a statement he issued on Sunday, warning that a catastrophe could follow if the elections were rigged. “My belief is that if the election is conducted freely and fairly, nothing will stop Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, from winning,” he said. However, he noted that some influential figures—both within the APC and in opposition parties—have expressed disapproval of Tinubu’s ambition. “If they find it difficult to win, they may resort to malpractice, including rigging,” Yakassai warned, emphasizing that his caution was meant as a wake‑up call for the nation to prevent any attempt to seize power through fraud or a military coup.
When asked about the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) assurances that the new Bimodal Voter Accreditation System would make rigging almost impossible, Yakassai replied that he did not need reassurance from INC. “What I know is that they are doing their best,” he said, adding a Hausa proverb: “Mai son abun ka yafi ka dabara,” meaning a person who wants to take your food must be cleverer than you.
Regarding speculation that the aggrieved G‑5 governors in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) might work against Atiku Abubakar and further limit his chances, Yakassai declined to comment on party politics, noting that he is not aligned with any political party and therefore cannot make predictions.
He recounted Tinubu’s visit to his home in November 2021, when the candidate expressed a clear interest in securing Yakassai’s support for the 2023 presidential election. “He appealed for my support, I gave him my assurance, and I have remained steadfast,” Yakassai affirmed. He added that, to date, no other presidential hopeful has approached him, suggesting that opposition candidates may have given up, believing he would not change his mind.
On the question of who might secure the highest number of votes from the North among the eighteen candidates, Yakassai expressed doubt that any single candidate would capture as much as 70 percent of the northern vote. He expects the votes to be split, with the two popular northern candidates—Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party—dividing the bulk, while the remainder would be scattered among other contenders. In his view, this fragmentation would benefit Tinubu, whose share of northern votes could exceed that of any individual rival. He also noted Tinubu’s extensive rally schedule across the country, contrasting it with the comparatively limited efforts of his opponents.
Addressing the legacy of the Buhari administration, Yakassai reiterated his earlier assessment that President Buhari lacked the capacity and competence to transform Nigeria. “Eight years later, the foreign‑exchange rate has worsened, market activity has declined, and the economy is far weaker than when he took office,” he observed. Nevertheless, he does not believe Tinubu will be held responsible for these problems, as Tinubu was not in power during Buhari’s tenure.
When asked about Afenifere leader Chief Ayo Adebanjo’s claim that the North would not vote for Tinubu, Yakassai explained that Tinubu does not need the totality of northern votes to win. “He only needs 25 percent of the total votes cast across the 36 states. The South‑West and two other southern states could provide a substantial portion, and ten northern states could also contribute,” he said, outlining a possible distribution of support.
Regarding a consensus among northern elders on whom to support, Yakassai noted that such unanimity has never existed since Nigeria became a republic. He recalled the First Republic, when splinter parties prevented the Northern People’s Congress from dominating the north, allowing a coalition of smaller parties to influence outcomes.
On the quality of political discourse, Yakassai expressed some optimism, pointing out that, three weeks before the election, there have been no major security challenges beyond isolated incidents of armed robbery and kidnapping. He acknowledged attacks on INEC facilities in a few states but cautioned that widespread violence would be a different matter.
Finally, when questioned about Labour Party candidate Peter Obi’s prospects, Yakassai dismissed the influence of social media, emphasizing that elections are decided at the ballot box. “Many people on social media are merely deceiving themselves,” he concluded.
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