Rwanda’s Growing Presence in Mozambique Raises Concerns
In three years, the Rwandan contingent in Mozambique has grown dramatically, expanding its operations across five districts in the terrorist-hit province of Cabo Delgado. The Rwandan mission, which officially aimed to help restore Mozambican state authority and security sector reform, has achieved significant success on the battlefield. However, concerns are growing about the long-term implications of their presence.
In July 2021, around 1,000 personnel from the Rwanda Defence Force and Rwanda National Police arrived in Cabo Delgado to combat violent extremism. The province faced a severe threat from terrorist attacks on civilians and public infrastructure. The Rwandan troops were initially deployed in two districts, Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, home to liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects worth billions of dollars.
While the Rwandan forces have reduced the insurgents’ firepower and restored stability around the LNG projects, their capacity and inclination for hot pursuit have displaced the problem, with terror groups dispersing and regrouping in other locations. The insurgents have also adapted to the new security context, increasingly using improvised explosive devices.
Despite their success, the Rwandan troops’ presence has raised concerns about their long-term strategy in Cabo Delgado. Security analysts question whether they will eventually withdraw, as there is still no clarity on their withdrawal timeline. The number of Rwandan troops in Mozambique has risen from 1,000 to around 5,000, with positions established in at least five districts.
Moreover, the Rwandan forces’ growing presence has led to suspicions that they may adopt a more lax stance to their operations, potentially worsening the security situation. This could make the Rwandan troops more necessary for the safety of locals and businesses, ultimately undermining Mozambican state authority.
The local population has also expressed concerns about the Rwandan forces’ intentions, with some questioning their growing role in Cabo Delgado. In Mocímboa da Praia, the population refused to use a market built by the Rwandan forces, citing uncertainty about their real intentions.
As the situation in Cabo Delgado continues to evolve, both Mozambique and Rwanda must revisit the Rwandan mission’s objective and ensure that while Rwandan troops support the host country’s counter-terrorism strategy, they do not replace government security forces in their role as primary security guarantor. The long-term implications for state authority over Mozambique’s territory and its people must be carefully considered.
Sources:
- AllAfrica News
- ISS Pretoria
- Center for Strategic and International Studies at Joaquim Chissano University in Maputo
