Prof. Udenta Udenta, the founding National Secretary of the Alliance for Democracy and a fellow at the Abuja School of Social and Political Thought, speaks with Friday Olokor about the February 25 presidential election, the controversy over the naira redesign policy, and other pressing issues. He begins by asking what type of president Nigeria truly needs. “A president is a product of social formation,” he says, emphasizing that the kind of leader the country requires cannot be considered in isolation from the system in which he will operate. The president heads the executive branch, which includes all ministries, departments, and agencies, but effective governance also depends on a strong parliament, an independent judiciary, a competent security apparatus, a vibrant civil society, and a free media. Thus, his analysis looks broadly at these institutions rather than focusing narrowly on the individual candidate.
In the presidential contest, Udenta identifies three or four main contenders. The two traditional parties are the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has been out of power for almost eight years. In addition, insurgent platforms such as the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), along with smaller parties, are vying for influence. The primary battle is therefore among the APC, PDP, and LP. Udenta has repeatedly asserted on television that Atiku Abubakar of the PDP will win, citing three factors: (1) a convergence of national forces rallying around him from the North and spreading southward, a “subterranean phenomenon” that is not immediately visible; (2) the abject performance of the APC government, marked by persistent fuel scarcity, the chaotic naira redesign and swap policy, and widespread insecurity across the six geopolitical zones; and (3) geography and demography, which shape electoral behaviour in a political environment still dominated by primordial rather than substantive considerations.
He argues that if Atiku performs strongly in the North and gains significant votes across the South, he could secure victory in the first ballot. By contrast, the APC’s incumbency appears weakened. Despite fuel shortages and the disruptive currency redesign, the party is unlikely to win more than a single geopolitical zone. Internal fragmentation further erodes its prospects: over seven APC governors have sued the president and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over core economic and monetary policies. A rift exists between the Buhari faction and the Tinubu‑El‑Rufai faction, driven by disdain for the former, bitterness toward perceived opposition to Tinubu’s candidacy, and collective governance failures. This internal discord, coupled with acute poverty and insecurity, makes it improbable that the APC will perform well in the upcoming election.
When assessing President Buhari’s legacy, Udenta notes that a partisan lens would yield a harsh judgment given the nation’s current state and Tinubu’s promised direction. However, a historical perspective might be more measured, allowing time for the “rough edges” of Buhari’s tenure to smooth and for positive achievements to be recognized. Nonetheless, Buhari’s legacy remains an unsettled project, and Tinubu is poised to inherit its shortcomings. Tinubu has repeatedly claimed he will build on Buhari’s accomplishments, but he cannot distance himself from that inheritance.
Regarding the CBN’s naira redesign policy, Udenta views the court battles as political, reflecting the APC’s internal contradictions and ideological incoherence. While the PDP also faces internal tensions—particularly the “blunted insurrection” of the G‑5 governors—it is administratively better positioned than the APC, whose governors have taken their own president to the Supreme Court, effectively attacking their own legacy. Tinubu and El‑Rufai have suggested that “dark elements” within the Villa have hijacked power, sabotaging the economy, but Udenta sees this as an attempt to deflect responsibility for the policy’s failures.
The naira redesign, according to the CBN governor, is the first such overhaul in over 19 years and aims to combat counterfeiters, hoarders, and the financing of kidnappers and terrorist bands, while also demonetising the electoral process. In theory, these goals are commendable, but implementation faltered. The withdrawal of old notes proceeded smoothly, yet the infusion of new notes encountered serious obstacles. Meanwhile, APC governors remained silent during the eight‑month ASUU strike, failed to address terrorism, poverty, out‑of‑school children, or the plight of the Chibok and Dapchi girls, and ultimately sued the CBN over the recirculation of old notes instead of focusing on the availability of new ones. Udenta questions their motives, noting that the policy, launched in October 2022, should have been completed within a few months, as past currency swaps have shown.
Finally, Udenta addresses the agitation for a South‑East presidency. The demand is rooted in historical grievances: since 1966, the South‑East and North‑East have never held the presidency, while the South‑West and North‑West have dominated political power during both military and democratic eras. Consequently, many view the presidency as a crucial avenue for correcting this historical imbalance.
Comments are closed for this story.