Madagascar’s recent crisis has sparked intense debate about the African Union’s (AU) response to coups and governance issues. The country’s military regime, which replaced former President Andry Rajoelina’s government, has been met with a mixed reaction from the international community. While the AU has suspended Madagascar from its activities, citing an unconstitutional change of government, many Malagasy see the new regime as a legitimate response to Rajoelina’s poor governance.
The crisis began with mass demonstrations by youths, known as Gen-Z, who protested against electricity blackouts, water shortages, and corruption. The protests escalated, calling for political reforms and Rajoelina’s resignation. After an initial security crackdown failed, Rajoelina’s talks with the Gen-Z movement collapsed, and he eventually fled the country. The AU’s Peace and Security Council (PSC) responded by suspending Madagascar and calling for a rapid return to constitutional order.
In contrast, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has taken a more conciliatory approach, sending a team to mediate the crisis. This difference in approach highlights the challenges faced by regional economic communities in addressing governance issues. Madagascar’s crisis is not an isolated incident; many African countries face similar challenges, with 75% of Madagascar’s population living below the poverty line and the country ranking 183rd out of 193 on the Human Development Index.
The AU’s zero-tolerance policy towards coups has been criticized for indirectly protecting ousted civilian heads of state, even in cases of blatant constitutional and electoral manipulations. The organization’s inability to address governance challenges and popular protests has led to concerns about its effectiveness. The situation in Madagascar has exposed the AU’s early warning deficits and poor communication between its entities.
As the country navigates its transition, there are concerns about the potential for manipulation by political actors and the military. The AU and regional blocs must be better prepared to respond to similar crises in the future, particularly with the growing influence of Gen-Z movements across Africa. The AU’s Peace and Security Framework is currently under review to ensure it adequately addresses contemporary threats. A more nuanced approach, balancing zero tolerance for coups with a similar attitude towards poor governance, may be necessary to address the root causes of these crises and maintain the organization’s relevance.
