Africa is poised for significant growth in its demand for refined energy products, with projections indicating a surge from approximately 4 million barrels per day in 2024 to over 6 million barrels per day by 2050. The African Energy Chamber’s 2026 Outlook Report, *The State of African Energy*, attributes this increase to demographic and economic forces, including a growing population and rising GDP. The report notes that Africa’s refined‑product demand will be driven by population growth, industrialisation, and urbanisation, with the continent’s population expected to reach nearly 2.4 billion by 2050. This expansion will boost energy‑intensive activities, as Africa’s GDP is projected to nearly triple to around $7.8 trillion by that date.
Despite representing 18 % of the global population, Africa currently consumes less than 5 % of the world’s oil products and contributes only 3 % to global GDP. This disparity signals substantial untapped potential, and the report emphasizes that Africa’s oil demand will continue to grow beyond 2050. To meet the rising need, investment is required in refining capacity, trading networks, and the adoption of cleaner fuels. The continent is positioned to become the primary driver of worldwide gasoline demand growth over the long term, with Nigeria and other emerging markets leading the way.
In addition to gasoline, diesel/gasoil consumption is expected to increase by about 880,000 barrels per day by 2050, driven by extractive industries and investments in critical minerals. Aviation fuels are also projected to rebound strongly, with demand anticipated to surpass pre‑COVID levels in 2025. The report identifies liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as a cleaner cooking solution with significant untapped potential, offering health and environmental benefits and a means of reducing emissions. However, LPG use remains low; regulatory frameworks, consumer‑financing plans, and distribution networks in rural and low‑income areas need development to unlock demand.
To satisfy Africa’s growing energy needs, proactive planning is essential, including more than $20 billion in downstream infrastructure investment by 2050. Flagship projects such as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery are vital, but smaller initiatives will also be necessary to bridge the gap. Ultimately, the report suggests that Africa’s energy future is one of tremendous growth, and policymakers, investors, and international partners must prioritise efficient trading, local refining, and a transition to cleaner fuels to maximise value for the continent’s expanding population.
