The Executive Director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, Idayat Hassan, discussed her assessment of the presidential and National Assembly elections with Gift Habib, focusing on what the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) could improve for future polls.
In her post‑mortem analysis of the 2019 general elections, the Centre documented a collation process that was opaque, chaotic, and vulnerable to manipulation, with violent disruptions in several states, including Lagos, Osun, Kaduna, Rivers, and Sokoto. The report identified six major challenges: INEC’s missteps and misconduct, deliberate denial of access to observers and media, logistical shortfalls, intentional disruption by politicians, political thugs and party agents, and intimidation of collation staff by security agents.
A notable difference in the 2023 elections was that, for the first time in three cycles, the presidential and National Assembly polls were held as scheduled on 25 February 2023, despite widespread insecurity, fuel scarcity, and the Central Bank’s November 2022 redesign of the naira, which caused currency shortages. Unlike previous elections, there were no reported cases of local or international observers and media being denied access to collation centres. Although the 2023 elections saw an increase in the exchange of basic foodstuffs, household goods, and bank transfers for votes, this phenomenon appeared reduced compared with recent off‑cycle elections, largely due to the prevailing cash crunch rather than a shift in voter behaviour.
Logistical challenges persisted. The 2023 polls experienced severe shortfalls, intentional disruption by politicians, thugs, and party agents aimed at voter suppression, and problems with election technology. In many parts of the country, especially the South‑East, polls opened very late, and the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) faced operational issues. Late openings forced voting to continue into the evening in states such as Plateau, Lagos, and Imo, after INEC confirmed that voters still in line at the original 14:30 cut‑off would be allowed to cast their ballots.
Disinformation campaigns showed a renewed level of sophistication, yet many tactics mirrored those of 2019. Synthetic and manipulated media images were doctored to push narratives against candidates, and videos were taken out of context to misinform the public. For example, a video alleging that Atiku Abubakar planned to rig the elections, and another showing Peter Obi campaigning for Atiku in 2019, resurfaced hours before the 2023 vote, spreading widely on TikTok and WhatsApp.
In the areas covered by the Centre, the resilience of youth voters and the emphasis on personalities over parties were striking. Early signs suggest a realignment of the political landscape independent of the presidential outcome. Labour Party candidates performed strongly in several constituencies, leading to the defeat of prominent lawmakers, including the outgoing governors of Abia, Benue, and Enugu states—members of the PDP renegade G‑5 group—who lost senatorial bids to Labour candidates. The House and Senate Minority Leaders also failed to secure re‑election in Delta State and the FCT, respectively.
However, the refusal to upload results promptly on the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal and the commission’s poor communication marred the election’s credibility. Opposition parties expressed anger over INEC’s failure to provide real‑time results, undermining the IReV’s purpose of building confidence in the electoral process. INEC’s earlier promotion of the portal as near‑perfect now appears misleading.
For the forthcoming 11 March elections, INEC must adopt proactive strategic communication to explain delays or technical glitches, thereby setting the narrative rather than allowing politicised misinformation to dominate. The commission should also stress‑test and fully utilise the IReV to ensure accountability. Security agencies need to deploy resources correctly and adequately to safeguard the process.
Voter turnout was low: out of 93 million registered voters, only about 27 million cast ballots, roughly 26 percent, far below the enthusiasm surrounding the election and lower than the 35 percent turnout in 2019. Factors contributing to the diminished turnout include an uncleaned voter register—still containing deceased or emigrated individuals—persistent naira and fuel scarcity, and widespread violence, all of which generated frustration and anxiety among citizens, especially the youth.
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