The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) has assured consumers that the ongoing price competition in the downstream petroleum sector will ultimately benefit them. Group Chief Executive Officer Bayo Ojulari explained that the current market tensions are a natural consequence of Nigeria’s transition from total import dependence to domestic refining. He made these remarks after briefing President Bola Tinubu in Lagos, against the backdrop of an intense price war that has seen petrol prices drop from over N1,200 per litre in November 2024 to as low as N739 per litre at some retail outlets in December 2025. The reduction is primarily driven by competition among Dangote Refinery, NNPCL and independent marketers.
Ojulari clarified that, under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), NNPCL is no longer responsible for petroleum product pricing or regulation. The PIA separates regulatory functions from commercial activities: the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) handles downstream regulation, while the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) oversees upstream matters. He emphasized that the PIA has reconstituted NNPCL as a commercial company that must compete profitably and succeed without federation allocations, raising finance independently.
The downstream sector has been gripped by fierce competition since September 2024, when Dangote Refinery began producing petrol locally. Between November 2024 and November 2025, the average retail price of Premium Motor Spirit fell by N153 per litre, driven by improved supply and stronger competition. Ojulari acknowledged that the simultaneous operation of major refineries such as Dangote and NNPC’s rehabilitated facilities has disrupted market equilibrium, but he believes the additional production will provide greater flexibility for downstream players.
Looking ahead, NNPCL aims to achieve at least 1.8 million barrels per day in 2026, moving toward President Tinubu’s target of 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and attracting over $30 billion in additional investment by 2030. The company has also completed welding of the main line of the Ajaokuta‑Kaduna‑Kano gas pipeline, which will supply gas to northern Nigeria for industrialisation, fertilizer plants and power generation when commissioned in early 2026. In the long run, price competition is expected to stabilise, and consumers are likely to benefit from increased production and supply of petroleum products. NNPCL’s focus on boosting output and ensuring product availability will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
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