Estonians began voting on Sunday to elect a new parliament in a poll that could strengthen far‑right nationalists, who have campaigned against further arms deliveries to Ukraine. Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’s centre‑right Reform Party is expected to win, according to opinion polls, but it will likely need a coalition to stay in power. A February survey by Kantar Emor projected the Reform Party to receive 28.7 % of the vote, with the far‑right EKRE in second place at 18.2 %. The same poll gave the Centre Party 13.4 %, Estonia 200 also 13.4 %, the Social Democrats 10.1 % and Isamaa (Fatherland) 8.5 %.
Estonia, a country of 1.3 million people bordering Russia, has a unicameral parliament of 101 seats, all of which are at stake in Sunday’s election. The Baltic state, a member of the European Union and NATO, has been a leading voice internationally for increased military aid to help Ukraine resist Russia’s invasion. Estonia’s military assistance to Ukraine now exceeds one percent of its gross domestic product—the highest contribution relative to the size of any economy.
“We support an open, friendly, Western‑minded, European, smart country,” Prime Minister Kallas told AFP. “My biggest competitor thinks we shouldn’t help Ukraine, we shouldn’t support Ukraine, we should only look for our self‑interest.” EKRE leader Martin Helme argues that Estonia should not “further escalate tensions” with Moscow. EKRE has opposed additional military aid to Kyiv, called for an end to accepting Ukrainian refugees, and advocated lower immigration rates to protect Estonian workers.
At the same time, Estonia faces a cost‑of‑living crisis, with one of the EU’s highest inflation rates—18.6 % in January over the previous 12 months. The Centre Party, traditionally popular with Estonia’s large Russian‑speaking minority, has supported government policy on Ukraine and Russia, which may alienate some Russian‑speaking voters; abstention among this minority, which makes up about a quarter of the population, could be high.
Reform is a centre‑right liberal party that appeals to business owners and young professionals. It has pledged to raise military spending to at least three percent of GDP, ease taxes on businesses, and pass a law approving same‑sex civil partnerships. The Centre Party is centre‑left, promising more investment in infrastructure and affordable housing. Political analysts see possible coalitions of Reform with Estonia 200 and the Social Democrats, or Reform with Centre and Isamaa, while EKRE’s chances of entering government appear modest.
Polling stations opened at 9:00 a.m. local time (07:00 GMT) and will close at 8:00 p.m. (18:00 GMT), with the first results expected early on Monday. More than 47 % of voters have already cast their ballots by post or online, according to the electoral commission.
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