The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has forecast a significant increase in the country’s current account balance, projecting it to reach $18.81 billion in 2026. This represents a 11.16% rise from the $16.94 billion recorded in 2025, according to the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria. The anticipated growth is attributed to increased portfolio investment inflows and external borrowings, which are expected to maintain a net borrowing position of $10.15 billion.
The International Investment Position (IIP) is also projected to record a net borrowing position of $69.58 billion in 2026, driven by attractive yields that are likely to boost capital inflows. Furthermore, reforms in the foreign exchange market are expected to sustain exchange rate stability, with external reserves predicted to increase to $51.04 billion.
The CBN’s outlook is set against a mixed global economic backdrop, with estimated global growth of 3.20% in 2025, slightly below the 3.30% recorded in 2024. Global inflation has moderated to 4.20%, largely due to lower energy prices and improved supply chains. In Nigeria, inflation pressures have eased, with headline inflation declining to an estimated annual average of 21.26% in 2025, following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a tight monetary policy stance.
The bank forecasts that headline inflation will moderate further to an estimated average of 12.94% in 2026, driven by declining food and fuel prices. However, the outlook is not without risks, including potential inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and disruptions to crude oil production. Unfavorable climatic conditions and geopolitical tensions could also impact growth prospects and macroeconomic performance.
On the trade front, Nigeria’s non-oil exports are expected to continue growing, supported by government initiatives aimed at strengthening the export value chain. The recently launched National Export Trading Company and National Intellectual Property Policy are anticipated to boost non-oil receipts. Despite this, total imports are projected to increase to $43.27 billion in 2026, reflecting higher demand for capital goods as economic activity expands.
The services account deficit is expected to widen to $13.68 billion in 2026, driven by higher payments for business and transport services. The primary income account is projected to remain in deficit, while the secondary income account is expected to rise to a $26.13 billion surplus, driven by stronger diaspora remittances and higher transfers. These developments are likely to have significant implications for Nigeria’s economic outlook and policy decisions in the coming year.
