The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) projects a substantial rise in the country’s current‑account balance, reaching $18.81 billion in 2026. This marks an 11.16 % increase from the $16.94 billion recorded in 2025, according to the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook. The growth is expected to stem from higher portfolio‑investment inflows and external borrowings, which should keep the net borrowing position at $10.15 billion. The International Investment Position (IIP) is also forecast to show a net borrowing of $69.58 billion in 2026, driven by attractive yields that are likely to boost capital inflows. Reforms in the foreign‑exchange market are anticipated to sustain exchange‑rate stability, while external reserves are projected to rise to $51.04 billion.
The outlook is set against a mixed global economic backdrop. Global growth is estimated at 3.20 % in 2025, slightly below the 3.30 % recorded in 2024, and global inflation has eased to 4.20 % thanks to lower energy prices and improved supply chains. In Nigeria, inflation pressures have softened, with headline inflation expected to average 21.26 % in 2025 after the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a tight monetary‑policy stance. The bank forecasts further moderation, projecting headline inflation at an average of 12.94 % in 2026, driven by declining food and fuel prices. Nonetheless, risks remain, including possible inflationary pressures, exchange‑rate volatility, and disruptions to crude‑oil production. Unfavourable climatic conditions and geopolitical tensions could also affect growth prospects and macro‑economic performance.
On the trade front, non‑oil exports are projected to keep growing, supported by government initiatives that strengthen the export value chain. The newly launched National Export Trading Company and the National Intellectual Property Policy are expected to boost non‑oil receipts. However, total imports are forecast to rise to $43.27 billion in 2026, reflecting stronger demand for capital goods as economic activity expands. The services‑account deficit is likely to widen to $13.68 billion, driven by higher payments for business and transport services. The primary‑income account is expected to remain in deficit, while the secondary‑income account should increase to a $26.13 billion surplus, buoyed by stronger diaspora remittances and higher transfers. These developments will have significant implications for Nigeria’s economic outlook and policy decisions in the coming year.
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