Nigerians may face a sharp increase in fuel costs, with petrol potentially reaching N2,000 per litre and diesel climbing to N3,000 per litre, according to the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN). The warning follows sustained high global crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
Billy Gillis-Harry, National President of PETROAN, stated that with crude oil trading above $100 per barrel, domestic fuel prices could double if the situation persists. He cautioned that such a surge would exacerbate inflation, increase transportation and goods costs, lead to job losses, and deepen economic hardship across the country.
This forecast aligns with recent market movements. Dangote Refinery has increased its petrol gantry price to N1,175 per litre, marking the third rise in just over a week, with a total increase of N396 per litre. Major depot operators, including Masters and Liquid Bulk, now list prices around N1,100 per litre. This hike comes in the context of escalated conflict in the Gulf region after military actions in late February involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
Current retail prices in Abuja and surrounding areas, as reported by major marketers including NNPCL, MRS, and AA Rano, range between N1,082 and N1,100 per litre. However, analysts expect these prices to rise further to align with the new refinery gate price, which now sets a higher benchmark for the market.
In response to the crisis, PETROAN has urged the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to immediately ramp up operations at the country’s local refineries. Specifically, the association called for the activation of the Area 5 plant at the Port Harcourt refinery and the Warri refinery. Boosting local refining capacity is seen as a critical step to stabilise domestic supply and mitigate the impact of volatile global oil prices.
The situation underscores Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to international oil price shocks despite having refining capacity, albeit underutilised. With global tensions showing no immediate signs of easing, the pressure on household budgets and business operations is expected to intensify unless local production is significantly increased. The next few weeks will likely test both government policy responses and the resilience of consumers and businesses amid the rising cost of essential fuels.
