The rescheduled governorship elections will be held on March 18 in 28 states across the federation. DIRISU YAKUBU examines the issues that could determine winners in states where political intrigues and high‑stakes games are already underway.
The February 25 presidential election shattered long‑standing myths about Nigerian politics, catching bookmakers off guard when their version of the truth proved wrong. Before the polls, analysts claimed that candidates without “structures” stood no chance of winning enough votes to merit public discourse. Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress) and Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party) were the chief proponents of this “structure” mantra, repeatedly reminding Labour Party candidate Peter Obi that, lacking any lawmakers at the state or federal level, his party lacked the machinery to swing votes in his favour. Obi was dismissed as a “social media candidate,” with traditional politicians arguing that his supporters were mainly netizens who lacked the numbers to mount a serious challenge.
The Independent National Electoral Commission’s results disproved these assumptions. Obi defeated Tinubu in Lagos State—the first time the famed “Jagaban” has been politically defeated there—and performed strongly nationwide, unsettling many state governors. Lagos, with 7,060,195 registered voters, is the most populous state electorally. Since the return to democracy in 1999, Tinubu has been Lagos’s political kingmaker, hand‑picking successors such as Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode, and the incumbent Babajide Sanwo‑Olu. Tinubu’s influence extends to the three senatorial districts and the federal constituency seats in the House of Representatives. Yet in the presidential vote, Obi secured 582,454 votes to Tinubu’s 572,606. This upset has forced Governor Sanwo‑Olu into a defensive campaign, especially after revelations of a secret PDP‑LP alliance aimed at unseating him. He has appeared on television to tout his four‑year record and promises to make Lagos a home for all Nigerians if re‑elected. His main challenger now is the LP’s Gbadebo Rhodes‑Vivour, whose popularity has surged since the party’s recent victory. The APC has intensified door‑to‑door campaigns, and some opinion polls predict a win for Sanwo‑Olu. Lagos State Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Gbenga Omotoso, told journalists that the governor will win, emphasizing that Lagosians are discerning voters who understand the government’s actions.
In Rivers State, the political drama is equally intense. Governor Nyesom Wike has been locked in a battle with PDP leadership over alleged breaches of the party’s zoning and rotation rules. After losing the PDP presidential ticket to Atiku Abubakar, Wike, backed by four other governors, demanded the resignation of National Chairman Iyorchia Ayu, arguing that a northern chairman would contradict the party’s constitution now that a northerner holds the presidential ticket. The stalemate led Wike’s Rivers PDP chapter to vote for the APC in the presidential election, resulting in the PDP’s first loss in the state since 1999. Recognizing Wike’s role in Tinubu’s victory, some APC members in Rivers have pledged support to the PDP’s governorship candidate, Siminialaye Fubara. The Labour Party has also pledged cooperation with the PDP for Fubara’s success, while the national PDP leadership reportedly plans to back an undisclosed candidate from another party as retaliation for Wike’s recent anti‑party actions.
Delta State presents another complex scenario. Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, who was Atiku’s running mate, was expected to deliver a strong vote for the PDP but managed only 161,600 votes, far behind the Labour Party’s 341,866. Okowa now faces a tough fight to retain his preferred successor, Sheriff Oborevwori, amid rising Labour popularity and a strong challenge from APC Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo‑Agege. Internal PDP divisions, with former governor James Ibori and Senator James Manager working at cross purposes, add further uncertainty to the March 18 outcome.
In Sokoto State, Governor Aminu Tambuwal helped the PDP win the presidential vote, with Atiku receiving 288,679 votes to Tinubu’s 285,444—a margin of just 3,235 votes. A PDP National Executive Committee member, speaking anonymously, warned that Tambuwal’s loyalties are unpredictable, noting his past support for Nyesom Wike in 2018 and his later shift to Atiku in the 2022 primaries. The governorship race will pit PDP’s Saidu Umar against APC’s Ahmad Aliyu.
Kano State, second only to Lagos in registered voters (5,921,370), saw Governor Abdullahi Ganduje defeated by former governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which secured 997,279 votes to the APC’s 517,341. Ganduje, once a dominant figure who removed Emir Sanusi Lamido in 2020 and publicly challenged Kwankwaso, now faces an uphill battle for his party’s successor, Abba Kabir‑Yusuf, amid Kwankwaso’s popularity. The contest has become an ego‑driven showdown between the two leaders.
Finally, in Benue State, Governor Samuel Ortom, a vocal opponent of PDP chair Iyorchia Ayu, pledged support for Peter Obi and formed a team to mobilise Labour voters. Despite his efforts, former governor George Akume delivered a decisive win for Tinubu, with the APC obtaining 310,468 votes to the LP’s 308,372. The APC remains confident that its candidate, Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia, will succeed Ortom, who also failed in his bid for the Senate seat representing Benue North‑West.
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