S&P Global Ratings has lifted Nigeria’s long‑term sovereign credit ratings to “B” from “B‑” for both foreign and local‑currency issues, citing the impact of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, greater foreign‑exchange (FX) liquidity, stronger fiscal receipts and a rise in external reserves. The agency’s statement, dated 15 May 2026, says the upgrade reflects three years of structural changes that have begun to stabilise macro‑economic fundamentals and restore investor confidence.
Key drivers of the rating improvement include the liberalisation of the FX market, which has expanded access to foreign currency and fostered a market‑driven exchange‑rate environment. Monthly FX turnover rose to an average of $8.6 billion in 2025, while April 2026 alone saw about $10 billion in market supply. External reserves climbed to roughly $50 billion by March 2026, up from $33 billion in 2023, supported by a stronger current‑account balance, lower import demand, the removal of fuel subsidies and the commissioning of domestic refining capacity.
The agency also highlighted the operationalisation of Dangote Industries Ltd.’s refinery and petrochemical complex, now running near its 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day capacity. This adds significant non‑oil GDP contribution and reduces dependence on imported fuels.
Fiscal reforms have complemented the FX measures. Executive Order 9, signed in February 2026, requires the Nigerian National Petroleum Company to remit a larger share of petroleum revenues directly to the Federation Account. S&P projects government revenue to reach 12.4 % of GDP in 2026, up from 7.3 % in 2023, while debt‑service pressures are expected to ease over the medium term.
The rating agency maintained Nigeria’s short‑term sovereign rating at “B” and raised the national‑scale rating to “ngA+/ngA‑1” from “ngBBB+/ngA‑2”, with a stable outlook. S&P warned that a reversal of reforms, a more expansionary fiscal stance widening deficits, or a sharp rise in debt‑service requirements could prompt a downgrade.
Projections accompanying the upgrade show oil production averaging 1.66 million barrels per day in 2026, a current‑account surplus rising to 5.8 % of GDP, inflation falling from 23 % in 2025 to 17.7 % in 2026, and real GDP growth stabilising at 3.7 % after a 4 % expansion the previous year.
The rating upgrade marks the first improvement in Nigeria’s sovereign rating in 14 years and signals a tentative turning point after years of exchange‑rate distortions, fiscal imbalances and FX shortages. Observers will watch how the government sustains reform momentum, particularly in fiscal discipline and further liberalisation of the FX market, to consolidate the gains and attract additional foreign investment.
