President Bola Ahmed Tinubu promised reform from day one. Those changes were necessary, but they have hit hard. Families now wrestle with tougher choices on food, transport, rent, school fees, and energy. Traders and small businesses scramble to adjust margins under the weight of exchange-rate shifts, credit costs, and rising inputs. Any honest look at this administration’s early record must start with that truth. Reform loses trust when leaders speak above the struggles of the people.
The real question is whether the tough moves since May 2023 have started fixing the cracks in Nigeria’s economy. And if those fixes are strong enough to reach ordinary citizens. The evidence points to a story still unfolding. The Tinubu administration hasn’t solved everything in three years. But measurable early returns are emerging across reserves, revenue, oil production, capital inflows, growth, education funding, and Nigeria’s standing with investors and global partners.
When Tinubu took office, Nigeria’s public finances were in deep trouble. Fuel subsidy drained cash that could have gone to basic services. The Central Bank faced large foreign exchange backlogs. Multiple exchange rates fueled arbitrage. Oil output fell short of needs. Public revenue was too low to meet development demands. These were deep structural limits that choked the government’s ability to fund services, protect the currency, and support businesses and households. Avoiding them would have bought short-term comfort at the price of deeper damage.
One early win is clear in Nigeria’s external position. The Central Bank cleared about $7 billion in overdue foreign exchange obligations. That move restored confidence in a system that airlines, manufacturers, investors, and businesses had stopped trusting. Since then, net foreign-exchange reserves climbed from $3.99 billion at the end of 2023 to $34.8 billion by the end of 2025. Gross reserves reached $50.45 billion by mid-February 2026. The balance-of-payments also flipped from deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022 to a $6.83 billion surplus in 2024. These aren’t just numbers. They show a country rebuilding the buffers needed to meet external obligations, support currency stability, and regain trust in the foreign-exchange market.
That repair is showing up in investor behavior too. Capital inflows jumped nearly 90% in 2025, from $12.32 billion to $23.22 billion, with foreign portfolio investment driving most of the rise. This isn’t a full factory-investment boom yet. But it signals that investors are returning to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market tells the story best. In 2023, the All-Share Index hovered around 53,000, with market capitalization near 30 trillion naira. By 2026, the index hit 250,000, and market capitalization soared to 160 trillion naira—a near fivefold leap to a record high. That kind of movement doesn’t happen in a market where investors see only drift and uncertainty. It reflects a major revaluation of Nigerian assets and growing belief that reforms are shifting the economy’s direction.
Inflation is the most sensitive gauge because Nigerians judge policy by what they pay daily. When Tinubu took office, inflation was already at 22.41% in May 2023. Then the tough but necessary reforms on subsidy and exchange rates pushed prices higher, peaking at 34.80% in December 2024. The latest figure of 15.69% in April 2026 suggests easing, but it must be read with caution because the National Bureau of Statistics rebased the Consumer Price Index. Inflation has dropped from the severe stress of the adjustment period, but food prices and household costs must fall further before many Nigerians feel real relief.
Growth and revenue figures show an economy drawing strength beyond oil. In the first quarter of 2023, before Tinubu took office, real GDP growth was 2.31%, slowed by the cash crunch. By the first quarter of 2026, real GDP growth rose to 3.89%, with projections to top 4% within a year, according to international financial institutions. Manufacturing grew 3.29%, and the non-oil sector accounted for 96.08% of real GDP. Between January and August 2025, total government collections rose to 20.59 trillion naira, up from 14.6 trillion naira in the same period of 2024. Non-oil sources brought in 15.69 trillion naira—about three out of every four naira collected. This shows the economy is expanding, with much of that activity coming from where most Nigerians work and do business. The government now has more fiscal room to fund roads, schools, healthcare, security, and social support. The more Nigeria can fund public obligations from a broader revenue base, the less it has to govern from a position of fiscal anxiety.
Oil output strengthens the recovery case because it sits at the center of Nigeria’s foreign-exchange and revenue position. In April 2023, before Tinubu took office, average crude oil and condensate output was about 1.25 million barrels per day. By April 2026, it rose to 1.663 million barrels per day—a 32.8% increase. For an economy heavily dependent on oil for foreign exchange and public revenue, that recovery gives the country more room to defend the naira, fund the budget, meet external obligations, and rebuild investor confidence in the upstream sector.
NELFUND is one of the clearest ways the reform agenda reaches households. For many families, the hardest part of higher education is juggling fees and upkeep. By creating a public financing route for students, the administration is reducing a barrier that keeps capable young Nigerians out of school or pushes them to drop out. As of March 9, the fund had disbursed 206.29 billion naira to 1,164,222 beneficiaries, with 128.84 billion naira paid to institutions for fees and 77.45 billion naira paid to students as upkeep allowances. These figures show a policy meeting a real need across the federation: education financing is providing practical support for families. We are seeing continuous stability and growth in the education sector.
The new minimum wage also belongs in this assessment, though wage policy alone can’t defeat inflation. Tinubu signed the new national minimum wage into law in July 2024, raising it from 30,000 naira to 70,000 naira and shortening the review period from five years to three years. The increase responded to a real problem: wages had fallen too far behind prices. Wage policy alone can’t beat inflation, but it helps protect the lowest-paid workers during a difficult adjustment period. The larger goal remains an economy where incomes rise because production, productivity, and business activity are growing, with the government adjusting the wage floor from time to time.
Nigeria’s reform credibility is also changing how the country is seen abroad. In foreign affairs, this has practical value. It affects how investors price the country, how lenders assess risk, how development partners engage, and how much confidence Nigeria carries into economic negotiations. Multilateral bodies like the IMF and World Bank have linked Nigeria’s current stronger macroeconomic stability to reforms. In May 2026, S&P positively upgraded Nigeria’s long-term sovereign rating, citing a stronger macroeconomic profile, higher oil production, domestic refining capacity, and exchange-rate liberalization. These are signals that Nigeria is beginning to recover credibility in the places where capital, credit, and economic influence are negotiated.
For those of us working on foreign affairs, these domestic indicators are directly tied to Nigeria’s standing abroad. A country negotiates better when businesses trust its currency market, airlines and investors believe legitimate obligations will be honored, partners see better fiscal management, and citizens abroad experience better service from the Nigerian state. Stronger reserves, a balance-of-payments surplus, renewed capital inflows, better revenue performance, oil output recovery, and education financing shape how Nigeria is seen by investors, development partners, diaspora communities, and other governments.
The strongest criticism of the administration may be that Nigerians still experience reform as pressure before relief. That criticism can’t be dismissed. But three years after Tinubu took office, the honest conclusion is that the early returns are real and historically significant. Nigeria has rebuilt net foreign-exchange reserves from a very weak position. It has moved from balance-of-payments deficits to surplus. Capital is returning to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market has reached record levels. Public revenue has improved. Growth has continued under difficult conditions. Oil output has recovered from the low levels recorded before the administration. NELFUND has opened a new route for education financing. The minimum wage has been raised. These are serious developments.
The responsibility now is to protect the gains, reduce inflation further, improve food supply, lower business costs, deepen infrastructure and energy reforms, strengthen security, and demand better spending from every tier of government. The early returns are beginning to show. The next task is to make them more visible in the markets, classrooms, farms, workplaces, airports, hospitals, and homes.
Like Rome, Nigeria won’t be built in one season. Development requires patient building, disciplined choices, and steady execution. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is laying that foundation. That is the TinuBOOM effect: the early signs of a country beginning to recover its footing, rebuild confidence, and prepare the ground for wider relief.
Ademola Oshodi is the senior special assistant to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Foreign Affairs and Protocol.
