President Bola Ahmed Tinubu promised reform when he took office. Those reforms were necessary, but they have squeezed Nigerian families hard. Households now face tougher choices on food, transport, rent, school fees, and energy. Traders and small businesses have had to rework their margins under the combined weight of exchange-rate volatility, rising credit costs, and higher input prices. Any honest account of this administration’s early performance must start with that reality. Reform loses public trust when government speaks above the lived experience of the people it serves.
The fair question is whether the painful decisions since May 2023 have begun to fix the distortions that crippled Nigeria’s economy. And whether those fixes are strong enough to reach citizens directly. The evidence points to an important but unfinished story. The Tinubu administration has not solved every problem in three years, but measurable early returns are emerging across reserves, revenue, oil production, capital inflows, growth, education financing, and Nigeria’s standing with investors and development partners.
When Tinubu took office, Nigeria’s public finances were under severe strain. Fuel subsidy drained money that could have funded basic services. The Central Bank had large foreign exchange backlogs. Multiple exchange rates created room for arbitrage. Oil production lagged national needs. Public revenue was too low for the scale of development demands. These deep structural constraints limited the government’s ability to fund services, protect the currency, and support businesses and households. Avoiding them would have bought short-term comfort at the cost of deeper national damage.
One early return is already visible in Nigeria’s external position. The Central Bank cleared about $7 billion in outstanding foreign exchange obligations, restoring confidence in a system that airlines, manufacturers, investors, and businesses had struggled to trust. Since then, net foreign-exchange reserves have risen from $3.99 billion at the end of 2023 to $34.8 billion by the end of 2025. Gross reserves reached $50.45 billion by mid-February 2026. The balance-of-payments position also turned around, moving from deficits of $3.34 billion in 2023 and $3.32 billion in 2022 to a $6.83 billion surplus in 2024. These are not abstract figures. They show a country rebuilding the buffers needed to meet external obligations, support currency stability, and regain credibility in the foreign-exchange market.
That repair is also showing in investor behavior. Capital inflows rose by almost 90 percent in 2025, from $12.32 billion to $23.22 billion, with foreign portfolio investment driving much of the increase. This is not a full factory-investment boom, but it shows investors are returning to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market gives the clearest expression of that renewed confidence. In 2023, the All-Share Index stood around 53,000, and market capitalization hovered around 30 trillion naira. By 2026, the index had reached 250,000, with market capitalization rising to 160 trillion naira, a near fivefold rise to a record high. That kind of movement does not happen in a market where investors see only drift and uncertainty. It reflects a major revaluation of Nigerian assets and a growing belief that reforms are positively changing the economy’s direction.
Inflation is the most sensitive indicator because Nigerians judge policy by what they pay every day. When Tinubu assumed office, inflation was already at 22.41 percent in May 2023. The difficult but necessary reforms around subsidy and exchange rates pushed price pressures higher, reaching 34.80 percent in December 2024. The more recent figure of 15.69 percent in April 2026 points to easing, but it must be interpreted cautiously because the National Bureau of Statistics rebased the Consumer Price Index. The point is, inflation has moved down from the severe stress of the adjustment period, but food prices and household costs must fall further before many Nigerians can feel the full benefit.
The growth and revenue figures show an economy drawing strength from outside oil. In the first quarter of 2023, before Tinubu took office, the NBS put real GDP growth at 2.31 percent, with the economy slowed by the cash crunch. By the first quarter of 2026, real GDP growth had risen to 3.89 percent and is projected to rise above 4 percent within a year, according to international financial institutions. Manufacturing grew by 3.29 percent, and the non-oil sector accounted for 96.08 percent of real GDP. Between January and August 2025, total government collections rose to 20.59 trillion naira, from 14.6 trillion naira in the same period of 2024, with non-oil sources bringing in 15.69 trillion naira, about three out of every four naira collected. This shows the economy has continued to expand, and much of that activity comes from where most Nigerians work and do business. Government now has more fiscal room to fund roads, schools, health care, security, and social support. The more Nigeria can fund public obligations from a broader revenue base, the less it has to govern from a position of fiscal anxiety.
Oil output strengthens the recovery case because it sits at the center of Nigeria’s foreign-exchange and revenue position. In April 2023, before Tinubu took office, average crude oil and condensate output stood at about 1.25 million barrels per day. By April 2026, it had risen to 1.663 million barrels per day, an increase of about 32.8 percent. For an economy heavily dependent on oil for foreign exchange and public revenue, that recovery gives the country more room to defend the naira, fund the budget, meet external obligations, and rebuild investor confidence in the upstream sector.
NELFUND is one of the clearest ways the reform agenda reaches households. For many families, the hardest part of higher education is the pressure of paying fees and upkeep at the same time. By creating a public financing route for students, the administration is reducing one of the barriers that keeps capable young Nigerians out of school or pushes them to drop out. As of March 9, the fund had disbursed 206.29 billion naira to 1,164,222 beneficiaries, with 128.84 billion naira paid to institutions for fees and 77.45 billion naira paid to students as upkeep allowances. The figures show a policy meeting a real need across the federation. Education financing is providing practical support for families, driving continuous stability and growth in the education sector.
The new minimum wage also belongs in this assessment, although wage policy alone cannot defeat inflation. Tinubu signed the new national minimum wage into law in July 2024, raising it from 30,000 naira to 70,000 naira and reducing the review period from five years to three years. The increase responded to a real problem: wages had fallen too far behind prices. Wage policy alone cannot defeat inflation, but it helps protect the lowest-paid workers during a difficult adjustment period. The larger goal remains an economy where incomes rise because production, productivity, and business activity are rising, with government adjusting the wage floor from time to time.
Nigeria’s reform credibility is also changing how the country is read abroad. For foreign affairs, this has practical value. It affects how investors price the country, how lenders assess risk, how development partners engage, and how much confidence Nigeria carries into economic negotiations. Multilateral bodies like the IMF and the World Bank have linked Nigeria’s current stronger macroeconomic stability to reforms. Also significant, in May 2026, S&P positively upgraded Nigeria’s long-term sovereign rating, citing a stronger macroeconomic profile, higher oil production, domestic refining capacity, and exchange-rate liberalization. These are signals that Nigeria is beginning to recover credibility in the places where capital, credit, and economic influence are negotiated.
For those of us who work on foreign affairs, these domestic indicators are directly connected to Nigeria’s standing abroad. A country negotiates better when businesses trust its currency market, airlines and investors believe legitimate obligations will be honored, partners see better fiscal management, and citizens abroad experience better service from the Nigerian state. Stronger reserves, a balance-of-payments surplus, renewed capital inflows, better revenue performance, oil output recovery, and education financing shape how Nigeria is read by investors, development partners, diaspora communities, and other governments.
The strongest criticism of the administration may be that Nigerians still experience reform as pressure before relief. That criticism cannot be dismissed. But three years after Tinubu took office, the honest conclusion is that the early returns are real and historically significant. Nigeria has rebuilt net foreign-exchange reserves from a very weak position. It has moved from balance-of-payments deficits to surplus. Capital is returning to Nigerian financial assets. The stock market has reached record levels. Public revenue has improved. Growth has continued under difficult conditions. Oil output has recovered from the low levels recorded before the administration. NELFUND has opened a new route for education financing. The minimum wage has been raised. These are serious developments.
The responsibility now is to protect the gains, reduce inflation further, improve food supply, lower business costs, deepen infrastructure and energy reforms, strengthen security, and demand better spending from every tier of government. The early returns are beginning to show. The next task is to make them more visible in the markets, classrooms, farms, workplaces, airports, hospitals, and homes.
Like Rome, Nigeria will not be built in one season. Development requires patient building, disciplined choices, and steady execution. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is laying that foundation. That is the TinuBOOM effect: the early signs of a country beginning to recover its footing, rebuild confidence, and prepare the ground for wider relief.
Ademola Oshodi is the senior special assistant to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Foreign Affairs and Protocol.
