Is there ever enough wealth, enough status, enough power? That question hangs over Nigeria like a storm cloud, as its leaders chase affluenza—the insatiable hunger for more—while the nation’s foundations crack. The law of diminishing marginal utility suggests that satisfaction should eventually balance with cost, but in politics and business, self-aggrandizement and conspicuous consumption have become the poison of choice.
Look at the world today. Russia’s nuclear threats in Ukraine brought humanity to the brink, and while that danger has eased, Europe still trembles. The Israeli and US misadventures in Iran have turned the Abraham Accords’ promise of Middle Eastern amity into smoke, as Iranian missiles light up the region. The democratization of suffering spreads, and no country is immune.
What lessons does this hold for China’s ambitions with Taiwan? A war involving any major economy would cripple the globe, thanks to our deep interdependence. Global politics and social cohesion will fray under the strain of fractured economies, and that’s before we factor in falling birth rates. An aging population means pressure on pensions, labor shortages, and slower growth. Fewer young people, more older ones—a sweet spot that turns bitter without productivity gains.
Could artificial intelligence offer an escape? When AI learns to redesign itself, it might lead to nirvana or the end of the world as we know it. Either way, it will reshape work and rewards, creating winners and losers, and a new technological divide.
Nigeria’s economy flails. Too many young people are idle, not in training or work, raising doubts about productivity. The government’s reform drive, once radical, has sunk into partisan funk. Is dirigisme favoring demand-side changes over supply-side overhauls that empower the private sector? The results show in rising poverty and a widening Gini coefficient. Add escalating insecurity, and the social fabric frays.
Set against the global canvas, Nigeria’s problems seem small. The world’s guardians cast a beady eye our way only when our ructions threaten regional externalities. But our elected officials go about misruling the country, convinced that even outcomes as dreadful as Somalia’s or Sudan’s won’t bring personal retribution. They’ve hedged their bets with multiple travel documents from non-African countries. As the Yoruba say, “Igi da ewe fo”—when the bough breaks, the cradle will fall, but the baby that is Nigeria’s elite knows to look out for itself.
There must be a kill switch for such self-destructive behavior, or else the road to Harare, Khartoum, or Mogadishu beckons.
