A few people have asked why I’ve become so optimistic about Africa. My years in international development and governance work have revealed something clear: policy choices matter, institutional strength matters, and narrative shapes outcomes more than most admit.
Africa’s story has long been dominated by crisis language—conflict, corruption, fragility. These labels travel globally, quietly shaping how risk is priced, how governments are treated, how people are valued, and how the continent is engaged. Some actors benefit from a narrative that keeps Africa in a state of permanent dependency. The long-term cost to us is enormous.
But the data tells a very different story, one that rarely gets the microphone.
Five of the eight countries projected to account for more than half of global population growth between now and 2050 are in Africa, according to UNECA. By 2030, sub-Saharan Africa’s contribution to the increase in the global labor force will exceed that of the rest of the world combined, according to the World Economic Forum.
The African Development Bank’s 2024 outlook places eleven of the world’s twenty fastest-growing economies in Africa, including Niger, Senegal, Libya, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Benin, Djibouti, and Tanzania. Under the African Continental Free Trade Area, the World Bank estimates the agreement could lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty and generate $450 billion in income by 2035 if implementation continues. Africa holds 60 percent of the world’s best solar resources but only 1 percent of installed solar PV capacity, according to the Energy Institute. That gap is either a failure or the single biggest infrastructure opportunity on the planet.
Of course, the fundamentals are not all positive. Some of these same fast-growing economies, including Ethiopia and Niger, carry real fiscal and debt fragility. The IMF has flagged overlapping monetary and external vulnerabilities across the region, even as growth accelerates.
Being bullish does not mean being blind. But something important is shifting.
Rwanda, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Botswana, and Ghana have strengthened regulatory quality and public financial management. Digital governance reforms—e-procurement, digital IDs, automated tax systems—are reducing leakages. Tax-to-GDP ratios are rising. Domestic revenue mobilization is rising in Kenya. For the first time in decades, non-oil exports surpassed oil exports in Nigeria. These quiet institutional gains do not trend, but they build states.
And then there is Africa’s youth, often framed as a burden but in reality one of the continent’s strongest sources of leverage. Young Africans are building in fintech, logistics, health, agriculture, and the creative economy. Many are not waiting for permission or external validation.
So yes, I am bullish about Africa. Not because of sentiment, but because the fundamentals are shifting, even with real risks attached.
Where Africa goes next will depend on how we organize ourselves and how we choose to tell our story. If we do not shape the narrative, others will—and their version will not serve our interests. This is the moment to reclaim the microphone. To speak with confidence. To build with intention. To insist on a narrative that matches our ambition.
Wale Osofisan is a Nairobi-based governance and institutional-architecture strategist and Director at Harlech Consultancy Services.
