Nigeria’s security crisis is deepening as insurgent groups, criminal gangs and politically linked armed actors exploit gaps in state authority across multiple regions, according to a new analysis by SBM Intelligence. The research firm’s latest security assessment maps a landscape in which non-state actors are adapting to military pressure, shifting tactics and expanding their operational reach.
The report examines recent violence involving Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province in the North-East, the Lakurawa group in the North-West, separatist-linked militias in the South-East, and criminal networks in the South-South and South-West. While military operations have degraded some networks, SBM warns these groups retain the capacity to regroup and target poorly secured communities.
A common thread links high-profile attacks such as the VIP ambush in Abia State and the political abduction in Ebonyi State: the proliferation of armed groups moving with high mobility across rural boundaries and exploiting weak local intelligence systems. In the North-East, Boko Haram factions around Sambisa Forest are conducting opportunistic raids for food, medical supplies and cash as military containment restricts traditional supply lines. The escape of an inmate from Maiduguri Maximum Security Custodial Centre is attributed by SBM to likely insider compromise or institutional laxity rather than an externally coordinated breakout.
In the North-West, Lakurawa is leveraging communities already destabilised by banditry to build influence, raise resources and contest control. The killing of 38 Lakurawa fighters in Gummi, Zamfara State, may temporarily reduce the group’s offensive capacity, but surviving fighters could retaliate by targeting softer, less-protected settlements. Lakurawa’s activities in Gummi and surrounding areas include cattle rustling, looting and religious outreach aimed at establishing legitimacy. In Sokoto State, civilian killings in Tambuwal are linked to the group’s reliance on cattle theft and attacks on commercial establishments. SBM expects tensions to remain elevated in parts of Sokoto and Zamfara as security operations intensify.
The South-South presents a different but persistent threat. Criminal networks there have shifted from large-scale militancy to kidnapping, extortion and oil theft, creating a lower-visibility but enduring security challenge. In the South-East, attacks involving political and state actors underscore the intersection of criminality and local power struggles.
The assessment arrives amid a surge of violent incidents. In late November, gunmen abducted more than 300 students and 12 teachers from St. Mary’s Catholic School in Papiri, Niger State; at least 100 have been released. In Kebbi State, attackers killed the vice principal of Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Maga and seized about 25 schoolgirls. On May 15, 2026, armed men struck three schools in Ahoro Esiele, Esiele and Yawota communities in Oriire Local Government Area, abducting students and teachers.
The United Nations reported at least 1,932 people killed across Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states between April and June 2026, with insecurity, attacks on humanitarian workers, bureaucratic hurdles and harsh weather hampering aid operations. Separately, Nairametrics cited data showing 106 violent conflict incidents resulting in 445 casualties and 256 kidnapping victims between July 26 and August 8, 2026.
SBM Intelligence previously flagged rising kidnapping threats and mob justice as armed groups relocate under military pressure, also noting increased illegal oil refining. The firm argues that sustained pressure on insurgent and criminal networks must be paired with stronger local intelligence and a more visible state presence in vulnerable communities to reverse the current trajectory.
