Ukraine awaits President Xi Jinping’s visit to the Kremlin this week with apprehension, fearing that China may ultimately decide to supply its strategic ally with arms and influence the outcome of the war. Beijing seeks to portray itself as a neutral party, neither condemning nor explicitly supporting the Russian offensive. While China insists on respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity, it has provided real diplomatic support to Moscow since the invasion in February last year. Lacking any lever of influence, Ukraine hopes that pressure from its Western allies on the Chinese leadership will help preserve this fragile balance. “Ukraine’s expectations are at a minimum level: for things not to deteriorate,” said Sergiy Solodky, first deputy director of the New Europe Center think tank in Kyiv, to AFP.
The topic is so sensitive that Ukrainian authorities do not wish to comment publicly on the trip, planned from Monday to Wednesday, during which Russian President Vladimir Putin and Xi are expected to meet at least twice. “Ukraine will follow this visit closely,” a senior Ukrainian official told AFP on condition of anonymity. “For us it is critically important that China maintains its policy of unwavering respect for the territorial integrity of other countries,” the official added, referring to Russia’s claim of annexing five Ukrainian regions.
At the same time, the United States in February accused Beijing of considering supplying arms to Russia as its invasion has become bogged down. “We’re confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia,” CIA Director William Burns told CBS in February. Media reports suggest this could include ammunition and drones, although China has strongly denied the claims. So far, only Iran has supplied attack drones to Moscow, which uses them to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure. US officials say Chinese companies are already providing Russia with non‑lethal equipment. “If they start supplying arms, that would be a serious problem for us,” another senior Ukrainian official said in early March, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council secretary Oleksiy Danilov has downplayed the likelihood of such supplies. “China… will not be complicit with Russia,” he said in an interview published Friday. Ukrainian analyst Yurii Poita, a visiting research fellow at the Taipei‑based Institute for National Defence and Security Research, also sees supplies as unlikely at this stage. “We are not expecting supplies of Chinese tanks, aviation or multiple‑launch rocket systems in the short term,” he told AFP.
For the moment, China is seeking to position itself as a possible mediator. In late February, Beijing published a 12‑point position paper calling for Moscow and Kyiv to hold talks, but it does not mention the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory and criticises “unilateral” sanctions on Russia. Western countries rejected the document, yet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, anxious not to irritate Beijing, said “we need to work with China.” Despite sporadic conversations between Chinese and Ukrainian foreign ministers, Zelensky has not spoken to Xi since the start of the invasion, although he has publicly expressed a desire to do so. “Zelensky has been trying to communicate with Xi since August, but China isn’t picking up,” Poita said.
According to US media, a conversation could occur after the Chinese president’s visit to Moscow, but Poita predicts “no breakthrough will happen.” Both economically and geopolitically, “Russia is very important for China, much more important than Ukraine,” which Beijing sees as a “Russian sphere of influence, like a grey zone” between East and West. Kyiv has “never really developed a policy on China” and has not had an ambassador to Beijing for two years, Solodky noted, adding that “there’s no point in hoping that China will suddenly hear us.”
Comments are closed for this story.