With a consistent awareness campaign and the rush for permanent voter cards last year, the 2023 elections were expected to experience a massive turnout of the electorate. Instead, the opposite occurred. ADEBAYO FOLORUNSHO‑FRANCIS writes on the issue and chronicles the statistics of polling in Nigeria since 1979. The inconsistent turnout of the electorate, as well as voting patterns over the last four decades, has always been a source of concern for political stakeholders and international observers.
When the National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, mooted the idea of a bimodal voters accreditation system and live transmission of results, he raised the hopes of millions of Nigerians. He explained that the technological device, specially designed to capture the biometrics of prospective voters and upload polling results, would be a game‑changer. Consequently, the zeal to become part of the history makers—deciding the next president, state governors, and lawmakers—fired up many youths to rush for their PVCs. INEC later acknowledged that youths represented the highest number of registered voters for the 2023 general elections. Festus Okoye, the National Commissioner in charge of the Information and Voter Education Committee, predicted that young Nigerians would determine the outcome, estimating 7,286,871 voters aged 18‑34—about 76.56 % of the voting population.
Despite these expectations, the presidential and National Assembly polls recorded a turnout far below previous elections. Although reports of massive rigging circulated, the 2023 general elections witnessed the lowest voter turnout in the country’s presidential history: less than 30 % of the more than 93 million registered voters actually cast a ballot, amounting to about 25 million people. In other words, only two out of every ten registered voters went to the polls.
Historical data show a volatile trajectory. In 1979, voter turnout was 34.6 %; it rose to 38.9 % in 1983, fell to 35 % in 1993, and climbed to 52.3 % in 1999. The 2003 election marked a peak, with an unprecedented 69.1 % of Nigerians across the six geopolitical zones voting. That election was highly competitive, featuring former president Olusegun Obasanjo, the incumbent Major General Muhammadu Buhari, and several other notable candidates. Although Obasanjo won by over 11 million votes, the election was marred by allegations of fraud, serial voting, and the discovery of millions of false ballots. International observers reported irregularities in 11 of the 36 states, yet these “isolated incidents” did not prevent Obasanjo from being sworn in for a second term.
After 2003, turnout began a steady decline: 57.5 % in 2007, 53.7 % in 2011, 43.7 % in 2015, 34.7 % in 2019, and a record low 27.1 % in 2023, despite the country’s population having tripled. The 2023 elections did see a resilient and patient voting population, with vote counting stretching into the early hours of the next day. However, the governorship and state‑assembly polls on March 11 were abysmal. Even when voting materials arrived on time and polling began early, many units recorded poor turnout.
Several factors contributed to this decline. The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) reported that the February 25 presidential election was characterized by violence, vote‑buying, and voter intimidation, though it praised INEC’s logistical improvements. The subsequent governorship and state‑assembly elections fared worse. Political analysts suggest that opposition successes in the presidential race prompted incumbent governors and powerful politicians to fortify their strongholds through violence and intimidation, deterring voters. The CDD observed that voters were increasingly open to inducements, with vote‑trading occurring across all six geopolitical zones. Yiaga Africa documented 15 confirmed cases of vote‑buying in eight states and noted violations of the 2022 Electoral Act, including parties distributing cash, food, and alcohol to voters.
Disillusioned voters expressed their loss of confidence in INEC on social media, lamenting that the presidential poll had not served as a dress rehearsal for smoother subsequent elections. Economic hardship, exacerbated by the Central Bank’s naira‑swap policy, also fueled apathy. Many Nigerians, especially youths, were seen playing football on empty streets or traders displaying goods with little interest in PVCs, preferring to focus on earning income to support their families.
INEC itself struggled with logistical challenges: faulty BVAS machines, delayed arrival of materials, ad‑hoc staff, and misplacement of polling stations. The promised real‑time transmission of results failed to materialize, disappointing the young electorate. Reports of violent voter intimidation and suppression in Lagos, Kano, Rivers, Edo, and Delta states alarmed the United States and Britain, prompting calls for visa restrictions on politicians and actors who undermine Nigeria’s democratic process.
Comments are closed for this story.