Addis Ababa — Cross‑border and domestic tensions, as well as interlinked crises in Ethiopia and Sudan and across the Horn of Africa, are jeopardizing security and development, a report by the renowned policy institute Chatham House said. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the disputed Al Fashaga territory, and the war in northern Ethiopia are just a few examples of the cross‑border concerns that have strained relations between Ethiopia and Sudan since 2018.
Both countries underwent transitions in 2018 that raised hopes for more democratic, civilian administrations and improved regional stability. However, since 2020, a violent war in Tigray and other parts of northern Ethiopia, coupled with a disastrous military coup in Sudan, has caused contestation between old and new political forces, derailing those transitions. Regional and geopolitical actors—including Egypt, Eritrea, and Gulf Arab states—pursuing their own often conflicting interests in Ethiopia and Sudan have further complicated prospects for de‑escalation and resolution.
Despite rising tensions, Chatham House noted that conflict now seems unlikely following conciliation between the two countries’ leaders. Nevertheless, the situation remains fragile, and efforts to restore relations must be reinforced. “If border disputes are not resolved, tensions may rise once more, endangering regional stability and hurting economic, development, and humanitarian outcomes,” the report warned.
Political agreements aimed at ending hostilities in northern Ethiopia and securing a more robust civilian government in Sudan provide an opportunity to revive both transitions, provided the necessary diplomatic backing is forthcoming. The African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development struggled to intervene effectively until the Pretoria Agreement was signed by Ethiopian parties, the federal government, and the Tigray Peoples’ Liberation Front (TPLF) in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022, the report reads.
International efforts to support regional stability should pursue coordinated responses that address the intersection of crises and the sources of instability within and between the two countries. A more cohesive international engagement, enhanced alignment between regional envoys, and stronger links with continental and regional diplomatic mechanisms could lay the groundwork for longer‑term stability and integration.
Recent fighting in Sudan’s capital illustrates the volatility. On Saturday, clashes erupted between the army of General Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan, head of Sudan’s transitional Sovereign Council, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, deputy head of the council, VOA reported. A doctors’ group in Sudan said the civilian death toll has risen to at least 97, with 365 injured.
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