In this piece, Funmi Fabunmi examines the transition from wide-body aircraft to smaller models by Nigerian airlines as the aviation industry continues to face significant challenges. Narrow-body aircraft, including the Embraer 195-E2, Embraer 147, ATR series, and Bombardier Q400, are poised to dominate Nigerian airspace as the sector implements recovery plans over the next decade. Local airlines are modifying their fleets and operating models to adapt to a constrained travel market. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw passenger traffic plummet between March and July 2020, has been compounded by global and national economic difficulties, as well as persistent shortages of aviation fuel, further straining domestic airline operators.
In response to these challenges, some carriers have resorted to layoffs, downsizing operations, and restructuring their businesses. Major passenger airlines have also explored cargo transportation on passenger aircraft as a means of survival. To navigate the economic headwinds, Nigerian airlines are re-strategizing by replacing costly large aircraft with more economical narrow-body options to reduce operational costs. According to Oliver Wyman’s Global Fleet MRO Forecast 2021-2031, the global aviation fleet is expected to be smaller than previously projected by 2031, resulting in constrained growth and consolidation over the next decade.
Highlighting this shift, Nigeria’s largest airline by fleet size, Air Peace, took delivery of a new Brazilian Embraer 195-E2 aircraft on February 5, 2021, becoming the first African carrier to acquire this latest model. The airline has ordered a total of 30 Embraer planes, making it second only to Lufthansa globally in terms of fleet size for these aircraft. With the E195-E2, dubbed a “profit hunter,” Air Peace aims to connect the entire African continent while supporting long-haul flights from its Lagos hub. Similarly, United Nigeria Airlines commenced domestic operations in 2021 using the fuel-efficient Embraer 147.
An aviation expert, speaking anonymously, noted that narrow-body and regional aircraft may play a crucial role in the immediate recovery of domestic airlines. He emphasized that airlines like Ibom Air, which operates the right type of aircraft, have a promising future. He pointed out that the longest air travel distance in Nigeria is about one and a half hours, a distance often served by trains in Europe, which are more economical. He explained that turboprop aircraft, such as the CRJ900, offer similar speed to the B737 but consume 30 to 40 percent less fuel, making them a more viable option.
The expert also highlighted that leasing larger, fuel-intensive aircraft is becoming increasingly impractical due to high rental costs, exacerbated by legal disputes that have made Nigeria appear risky for business. Captain Dapo Olumide, the Chief Executive Officer of Ropeways Limited and former Managing Director of Virgin Nigeria, stated that the challenges faced by airlines are largely self-inflicted due to the use of inappropriate aircraft for domestic operations. He predicted that by the end of the year, fewer airlines would remain operational due to high overhead and associated costs.
Aviation analyst Wole Shadare noted that Nigerian airlines are increasingly moving away from large-bodied aircraft in favor of smaller models to save on fuel costs. Smaller planes not only consume less fuel but are also more economical to maintain. Airlines such as ValueJet, Arik Air, and Air Peace are transitioning towards small-bodied aircraft, which also allows for more efficient use of hangar space. Capt. Majekodunmi, CEO of ValueJet, emphasized that fuel efficiency, comfort, and advanced technology are key factors driving this shift. He pointed out that while airlines previously operated larger aircraft when fuel prices were lower, the current high prices necessitate a change in strategy.
In 2021, Nigeria’s Ibom Air ordered ten narrow-body A220 jets from Airbus, a deal announced during the Dubai Air Show. The Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Udom Emmanuel, highlighted that this agreement aims to strengthen the strategic partnership between the state government, Ibom Air, and Airbus. The deal, valued at approximately $810 million based on pre-pandemic prices, is expected to enhance Ibom Air’s presence in the aviation industry and facilitate operations across Africa.
The shift towards narrow-body aircraft has contributed to Airbus maintaining its position as the world’s leading plane maker for the fourth consecutive year. Airbus Sales Chief Christian Scherer expressed satisfaction with this achievement and looked forward to continued success. However, in the more lucrative wide-body airplane category, competition remains fierce, with Boeing winning more orders despite Airbus facing significant cancellations. In 2022, Boeing delivered a total of 480 jets, a 40 percent increase from the previous year, while Airbus delivered 661 jets, falling short of its target of 700 deliveries due to ongoing supply chain challenges stemming from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and inflationary pressures. CEO Guillaume Faury acknowledged the fragility of the supply chain but reiterated Airbus’s ambitious plans to ramp up production of its A320 single-aisle aircraft in the coming years.
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