IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s Growth Prospects

IMF Cuts Nigeria’s Growth Projections Due to Low Crude Oil Production and Severe Flooding

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s growth prospects for 2024 to 2.9% from 3.3% due to various challenges facing the country’s economy, including low crude oil production and severe flooding.

According to the IMF’s recently published World Economic Outlook (WEO), Nigeria’s growth prospects have been revised downward due to the effects of recent inflation, flooding, and oil production setbacks.

The global economic growth projection for 2025 remains unchanged at 3.2%, but represents a decline of 0.1% from the fund’s earlier projection in July 2024.

For Nigeria, the IMF’s GDP growth projection for 2025 increased by 0.2% from its earlier projection in July this year. However, the GDP growth in 2024 will remain at 2.9%, which is a downgrade compared to its projection in July of this year.

The IMF’s report noted that Nigeria’s economy grew by 2.98% and 3.19% in the first and second quarters of the year, respectively, amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the naira. The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks.

The report attributed the downward revision to two major factors: agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production.

Speaking on the report, division chief in the IMF’s Research Department, Jean-Marc Natal, said that there has been some progress in the region, but challenges such as high inflation and debt service remain.

However, Assistant Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Departments, Jason Wu, noted that Nigeria’s economy is on a path to stability as a result of the reforms taken by the government.

The downgrade comes as some Nigerian states battle severe flooding, and the country struggles with low crude oil production due to pipeline vandalism and crude oil theft.

The World Bank had also reported that Nigeria’s inflation rate escalated for 13 consecutive months due to various factors, including the removal of fuel subsidy and the depreciation of the naira against major currencies.

As of late 2023, inflation surged, driven by higher prices for food, energy, and essential goods. The inflation rate increased further to 29.90% in January 2024, mainly on the cost of food items.

The situation highlights the challenges facing Nigeria’s economy and the need for policymakers to address the underlying issues hindering economic growth and development.