Guinea’s Path to Democracy: A Delicate Balance
As Guinea inches closer to restoring democratic rule after the 2021 military coup that ousted President Alpha Condé, the country faces a critical juncture. Despite some progress, the transition process remains fragile, with concerns over the electoral process, democratic freedoms, and the potential candidacy of General Mamadi Doumbouya in the next presidential election. The international community, including the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU), is watching closely, aware that Guinea’s stability is crucial for regional peace.
The 10-point transition timetable, agreed upon by Doumbouya’s junta and ECOWAS, initially aimed to conclude with elections in December 2024. However, the deadline has been extended to 2025, raising concerns among opposition parties and civil society organizations. A recent announcement of a constitutional referendum scheduled for September 21 has been seen as a positive step, but it may not be enough to build trust between political actors and the transitional government.
One of the key challenges is the compilation of the voters’ roll, which has been questioned by many. To address this, the transitional authorities have decided to maintain the existing civil register and conduct a parallel electoral census by June 20. Additionally, a new draft constitution has been presented, which was adopted by the transitional parliament and forwarded to Doumbouya. This inclusive process is seen as vital for guaranteeing post-transition stability.
Prime Minister Bah Oury has suggested holding presidential and legislative elections simultaneously, following the constitutional referendum. This proposal has been welcomed by some, but others are concerned about the potential for electoral crises, which have historically been a catalyst for political tensions in Guinea. The main political parties are calling for an independent and impartial electoral commission to oversee the elections, rather than the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralization (MATD), which has announced it will organize the polls.
The crisis of confidence between political actors and transitional authorities is further complicated by the lack of consensus on the electoral process, the closing of political and civic space, and disagreement over Doumbouya’s potential candidacy. The provisional suspension of main opposition parties has also raised concerns about the transitional authorities consolidating their position ahead of elections.
As Guinea navigates this delicate transition, international support is crucial. ECOWAS’ technical mission to Conakry in April and the AU’s backing are significant steps in the right direction. The United Nations has also emphasized the need for sustained political and diplomatic efforts to complement technical support. ECOWAS should encourage dialogue to reach consensus on the technical and political conditions for holding the various elections, which will help reduce tensions and foster a more peaceful environment ahead of the polls.
Ultimately, Guinea’s path to democracy requires a careful balance between progress and caution. The international community must continue to support the transition process, while also ensuring that the country’s democratic principles are upheld. As Guinea moves towards constitutional order, it is essential to prioritize the will of the Guinean people and their desire for democracy, as highlighted by a recent Afrobarometer study. With careful navigation and international support, Guinea can overcome its current challenges and emerge as a stable, democratic nation.
