OPEC+ is expected to approve another oil‑production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting on October 5. This move is driven by rising oil prices, which have encouraged the group to try to regain market share. According to three market sources quoted by Reuters, the new increase continues OPEC+’s strategy reversal that began in April, when it started raising quotas to boost its share of the market.
Since that reversal, OPEC+ has already lifted production by more than 2.5 million barrels per day, roughly 2.4 % of global demand. The increase was partly a response to pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to lower oil prices. The coalition—comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies—accounts for about half of the world’s oil output.
Oil prices fell from over $80 per barrel at the start of the year but have mostly traded in a narrow $60‑$70 range since OPEC began raising production in April. On Friday, however, prices rose to their highest level since August 1, climbing above $70 per barrel, buoyed by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
The group’s total output cuts, which peaked at 5.85 million barrels per day, are being gradually unwound. Eight producers plan to fully remove one element of those cuts by the end of September and have begun eliminating a second layer in October. OPEC+ also granted the United Arab Emirates permission to increase output by 300,000 barrels per day between April and September.
The November increase, to be discussed on October 5, is expected to match the October hike at at least 137,000 barrels per day. While a final decision has not yet been made, analysts note that OPEC+ hikes have often fallen short of pledged amounts because many members are already pumping at capacity. The expected production increase comes as oil prices continue to fluctuate in response to global events.
The October 5 meeting will determine OPEC+’s next steps and is likely to have a significant impact on the global oil market. With oil prices sensitive to changes in production and global demand, the outcome will be closely watched by industry experts and investors.
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