The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that renewable energy is expanding at a faster rate than fossil fuels globally, despite changes in US policy. According to the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, oil demand is expected to peak around 2030. The agency presented different scenarios for the future of energy, including one where the US has 30 percent less renewables capacity installed in 2035 due to policy changes. However, globally, renewables continue to grow rapidly, led by solar photovoltaics.

The IEA’s report comes as world leaders meet at the UN’s COP30 climate conference in Brazil, which the US has shunned. The agency had to navigate criticism from the Trump administration, which has accused the IEA of projecting dwindling demand for fossil fuels. The IEA used three scenarios for its World Energy Outlook, including one that takes into account current policies, another that considers stated government policies, and a third that looks at a world that reaches net zero emissions by 2050.

Under the Current Policies Scenario, oil and natural gas demand would increase by 16 percent by 2035 and continue to rise through 2050. However, in the Stated Policies Scenario, oil demand would peak around 2030 and decline to 100 million barrels per day by 2035. The IEA also noted that demand for electricity is rising, driven by data centers and artificial intelligence in advanced economies and China, as well as increasing use of air conditioning in developing countries.

In every scenario, China remains the largest market for renewable energy, accounting for 45 to 60 percent of global deployment over the next 10 years. However, the IEA warned that the world would exceed 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, under every scenario. The agency noted that there is less momentum behind national and international efforts to reduce emissions, despite rising climate risks.

The IEA’s report highlights the ongoing shift towards renewable energy, despite policy changes in the US. The agency’s scenarios provide a roadmap for the future of energy, emphasizing the need for continued investment in renewables to mitigate climate change. As the world continues to grapple with the challenges of climate change, the IEA’s report serves as a reminder of the importance of transitioning to a low-carbon economy.