The recent advance of the M23 rebel group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has exposed the limitations of current peace efforts in the region. Despite the signing of the Washington Accords for Peace and Prosperity by the presidents of Rwanda and the DRC on December 4, the M23 rebellion launched a renewed offensive in South Kivu, seizing the city of Uvira on December 10, 2025. The devastating attack resulted in at least 400 deaths and displaced over 200,000 people.
The escalation has raised regional tensions, with DRC President Félix Tshisekedi accusing Rwanda of violating its commitments, and Burundi denouncing Rwanda’s “belligerent attitude.” Rwanda, in turn, claims that the DRC and Burundi have violated ceasefire arrangements. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the Washington Accords do not include the M23, which is engaged in parallel talks with the government in Doha.
The failure of peace processes to avert this escalation can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, international pressure on key conflict parties remains limited, with coercive instruments such as sanctions largely absent. Secondly, peace processes have overlooked the interconnected internal and regional drivers that shape the conflict, including unresolved conflicts over land, local power, and the presence of foreign rebel groups.
The conflict has also been influenced by the actions of neighboring countries, including Uganda and Burundi, which have deployed troops in eastern DRC. The situation is further complicated by the presence of foreign forces, including the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), which is a core component of the Washington deal.
To address the crisis, there is an urgent need to secure the withdrawal of Rwandan forces and end external support for armed groups. This requires a shift away from parallel peace processes to a sequenced approach, with Rwandan disengagement conditioning actions against the FDLR and peace dialogue. The broader regionalization of conflict must also be addressed, involving regional bodies such as the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region and anchored in UN Security Council Resolution 2773.
Ultimately, a genuine national peace process, including the M23 and other actors, is necessary to confront the structural conditions that perpetuate conflict in the DRC. This can be achieved by drawing lessons from the Second Congo War, where regional disengagement paved the way for a Congolese-led peace process. The international community must prioritize a comprehensive and inclusive approach to address the complex drivers of the conflict and promote lasting peace in the region.
