Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, disclosed that the country’s 2025 revenue projection of N40.8 trillion is far from realistic, revealing a shortfall of N30.1 trillion—or 281 percent. In an interactive session with the House of Representatives Committees on Finance and National Planning, he noted that Nigeria has so far generated only N10.7 trillion of the projected amount. This figure falls under the “budget of restoration,” which aims to stabilise the economy, secure peace and rebuild prosperity.
The sizable revenue gap has raised concerns about the sustainability of Nigeria’s public finances. Minister Edun stressed that spending must be based on actual revenue rather than optimistic forecasts. He warned that, at the current trajectory, federal revenues for the full year are likely to end around N10.7 trillion, far below the initial N40.8 trillion estimate.
The revelation comes as the Senate passed the 2026–2028 Medium‑Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, clearing the way for President Bola Tinubu to present the 2026 Appropriation Bill, estimated at N54.4 trillion. The 2025 revenue shortfall underscores the challenges confronting Nigeria’s economy and highlights the need for careful fiscal management.
Nigeria’s struggle to meet revenue targets is not new, and the latest figures will likely prompt a re‑evaluation of fiscal policies. As the government moves forward with the 2026 budget, it must balance ambitious spending plans with the reality of revenue generation. The 2025 shortfall serves as a reminder of the importance of prudent financial planning and a sustainable approach to managing the nation’s public finances.
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