The global framework for controlling nuclear weapons is facing significant challenges in 2026, with the potential to erode safeguards against a nuclear crisis. Two major events in the first half of the year will impact the fragile balance: the expiration of the US-Russia bilateral treaty, New START, on February 5, and the Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in New York in April.

The NPT, considered the cornerstone of global nuclear security, has been under strain, with the last two review conferences failing to produce a final document. Experts predict a similar outcome in April, citing the current state of nuclear arms control as “bleak.” Alexandra Bell, head of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, warned that the upcoming conference would be “difficult,” while Anton Khlopkov, director of the Center for Energy and Security Studies, described the arms control architecture as being “at the point of almost complete dismantlement.”

The international nuclear landscape has darkened in recent years, with incidents such as US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Russia’s test of a new nuclear-powered cruise missile. The shift in global relations, with China’s growing power and technological advances, has also complicated the traditional Moscow-Washington axis that underpinned nuclear control. Emmanuelle Maitre of France’s Foundation for Strategic Research noted that “the arms control architecture is crumbling,” with the emergence of new technologies and a multipolar world introducing complexities beyond the Cold War-era bilateral model.

The lapse of New START, which sets weapon limits and includes inspection systems, is likely, with the entire inspection component no longer functioning. While some argue that allowing the treaty to lapse is in the US interest, others warn that it could have significant consequences. Robert Peters of the Heritage Foundation noted that China’s rapid nuclear expansion, with 100 new warheads built annually, is a concern that New START does not address.

However, experts caution that the immediate consequences of a New START lapse or a failed NPT review conference may not be severe. Maitre noted that there are bottlenecks that would slow any significant buildup, and the lack of a final document from the review conference would not cause immediate damage to the NPT. Nevertheless, the erosion of safeguards risks leaving the world without diplomatic tools to resolve tensions, making it harder to forge collective solutions in the event of a crisis. As the global nuclear landscape continues to evolve, the need for effective arms control mechanisms and collective solutions has never been more pressing.