Nairobi — A recent national survey by TIFA Research has revealed that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is facing internal divisions and an uncertain future following the death of its long-serving leader, Raila Odinga. The party is struggling to define its identity in the post-Raila era, particularly in its cooperation with President William Ruto’s Broad-Based Government.
Despite ODM’s national popularity rising to 20%, surpassing President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16%, the party’s internal cohesion has weakened. The survey suggests that the surge in popularity may be driven by post-Raila sympathy rather than genuine endorsement of the party’s current political posture. Expectations among the public and within the party remain divided, with half of respondents expecting ODM to return to the opposition by 2027, while 38% believe it will remain part of the Broad-Based Government.
Among ODM supporters, there is strong resistance to any formal endorsement of President Ruto in 2027, with only 19% wanting the party to back him for a second term. Instead, 34% prefer ODM to field its own presidential candidate, while 20% favor supporting another candidate from the broader Azimio-opposition formation. This highlights a widening gap between ODM’s top leadership, which has embraced cooperation with the government, and grassroots supporters who remain wary of aligning too closely with President Ruto.
The party’s divisions extend to its highest decision-making levels, including the Odinga family. The informal elevation of Raila Odinga’s elder brother, Oburu Odinga, as the party’s political anchor has drawn criticism from within the party. Oburu has publicly signaled support for continued engagement with the Broad-Based Government, while Raila’s daughter, Winnie Odinga, has suggested a different political path, fueling perceptions of internal discord.
The survey also notes a decline in the traditional ethnic and personality-based loyalty that long underpinned the party’s strength. The proportion of Luo respondents who say they look to a specific community leader for political direction has fallen sharply from 63% to 47% since Raila’s death. This shift may allow ODM leaders and followers to make their own decisions about what party, coalition, or presidential candidate to support, potentially altering the party’s trajectory.
The findings of the TIFA Research survey underscore the challenges facing ODM as it navigates its future without its long-serving leader. As the party approaches the 2027 General Election, it must address its internal divisions and define its role in the political landscape, whether in opposition or as part of the Broad-Based Government. The survey’s results highlight the need for ODM to reassess its strategy and rebuild its internal cohesion to remain a viable force in Kenyan politics.
