Stephen Angbulu writes about the possible end of a 30‑year presidential quest for the Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate, Atiku Abubakar, after his loss in the recently concluded election. In the early hours of Wednesday, 1 March 2023, the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, and his allies erupted in celebration when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared him the winner. INEC Chairman Prof. Mahmood Yakubu announced that the former Lagos State governor polled 8,794,726 votes, defeating 17 other candidates in the 25 February polls. Among them were the PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, who garnered 6,984,520 votes, and the Labour Party’s Peter Obi, who came third with 6,101,533 votes. The announcement once again dashed Atiku’s hopes; he has vied for Nigeria’s highest office in six election cycles spanning three decades. At 76, the former Vice‑President will be 80 at the next election, prompting supporters and opponents alike to wonder whether he will contest again.
Before 1999, the Adamawa‑born businessman served as Vice‑President of Nigeria from 1999 to 2007. Despite a long political career, a wide network, and strong determination, the presidency has eluded him at every election cycle. Abubakar first ran for president in 1993 under the Social Democratic Party but lost the primary to Moshood Abiola. Abiola’s mandate was later nullified when military ruler General Ibrahim Babangida annulled the 1993 election—widely regarded as Nigeria’s freest and fairest. Following protests, Babangida handed power to Ernest Shonekan’s interim government, which was soon overthrown by General Sani Abacha, ending the Third Republic. Abacha’s five‑year dictatorship forced many politicians, including Atiku, underground; Abiola was imprisoned and died under the regime. After Abacha’s sudden death in 1998 and the return to civilian rule, Atiku re‑entered national politics, joining the PDP and becoming the running mate of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, who won the presidency in 1999 and 2003. Although Atiku retained his vice‑presidential seat throughout Obasanjo’s eight years, their relationship soured, especially during the second term. Decades later, Obasanjo called choosing Atiku a “mistake,” citing the former Vice‑President’s staunch opposition to a third term. By December 2006, Obasanjo declared the vice‑presidency vacant, and Atiku could not secure the PDP’s endorsement for the 2007 election, which went to Umaru Yar’Adua.
In September 2007, Atiku defected to the Action Congress and secured its presidential ticket, but lost to Yar’Adua. He challenged the result in court, but the Supreme Court dismissed his case. After returning to the PDP in 2009, he sought the party’s 2011 ticket but lost to Goodluck Jonathan, who became president. Undeterred, Atiku left the PDP again in 2014, joining the newly formed APC, and contested its 2015 ticket, losing to Muhammadu Buhari, who won the election. He returned to the PDP in 2018 and won the party’s 2019 presidential nomination, again losing to incumbent Buhari. Since that defeat, Atiku has remained in the PDP, preparing for the 2022 primary, where he faced 16 other aspirants, including governors Aminu Tambuwal, Nyesom Wike, Bala Mohammed, and Udom Emmanuel, as well as former Senate presidents and other notable figures. Peter Obi withdrew before the primary and joined the Labour Party, becoming its presidential candidate.
On 28 May 2022, Atiku secured the PDP nomination with 371 votes, defeating Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, who received 237 votes. However, Wike mobilised resistance, launching media attacks on Atiku and his allies. The PDP’s internal structure suffered infighting, with Wike and four other governors—the “G‑5” (Seyi Makinde, Okezie Ikpeazu, Samuel Ortom, and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi)—demanding the removal of PDP chairman Iyorchia Ayu, arguing that a northern presidential candidate required a southern party chairman. Reconciliation attempts failed; in February, just days before the election, Wike declared the conflict “over” and refused further talks, urging his supporters to vote for Tinubu. Consequently, Tinubu won with 231,591 votes to the PDP’s 88,468.
While the PDP weakened, a third force emerged. Peter Obi, after defecting to the Labour Party on 26 May 2022, attracted a youthful “Obidient” movement. His frugal reputation and achievements as Anambra governor resonated with voters tired of the old guard. Although the Labour Party lacked deep national penetration, it garnered over six million votes, even defeating Tinubu in Lagos. Analysts note that Obi’s departure from the PDP likely cost the party crucial votes. Former Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, running on the New Nigeria Peoples Party ticket after leaving the PDP, also siphoned support.
The PDP’s unresolved internal crisis and the rise of a strong third force dealt a significant blow to Atiku’s chances. His long‑term defeats are linked to repeated party defections, which hindered the development of a loyal, steady base. APC chieftain Osita Okechukwu argued that Atiku’s “indiscretion, desperation and internal contradictions” killed the PDP, citing his 2014 defection over zoning conventions and subsequent return to contest the PDP ticket. Public affairs analyst Jide Ojo echoed this, saying a divided PDP made it easy for Tinubu to win, invoking the proverb that a house divided cannot stand. He suggested that if Obi, Kwankwaso, and the G‑5 governors had remained united behind Atiku, the election would have been a walkover.
If the judiciary upholds Tinubu’s victory, Atiku and Obi will likely challenge the result in tribunals, potentially reaching the Supreme Court. A major obstacle for Atiku’s future ambitions is his age; at 76 he will be 80 by the 2027 election. Although the Nigerian Constitution imposes no age limit, many doubt he will seek the presidency again. Ojo expressed skepticism, noting that Atiku is already regarded as an “ancestor” by some Nigerians and may view this as his final political opportunity, focusing now on overturning the current result.
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