The International Crisis Group has listed the Ethiopia‑Eritrea conflict among the top ten global crises to watch in 2026. The think tank warns that a clash between the two nations could plunge the Horn of Africa into chaos, especially as Sudan is already embroiled in war.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki have been exchanging accusations. Abiy blames Eritrea for supporting anti‑government militias, while Isaias claims Ethiopia is trying to reconquer Eritrea’s ports. The current tensions trace back to 2018, when Abiy came to power and formed an alliance with Isaias, who had previously fought alongside the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) during the 1974‑1991 civil war. That alliance was short‑lived; war erupted between Ethiopia and the Tigrayan leadership in 2020. Eritrean troops fought on the side of the federal government, and a cease‑fire was signed in November 2022.
Since the cease‑fire, Addis Ababa has been engaged in a shadow war with both Asmara and the Amhara community. Abiy accuses Eritrea of backing an insurgency by the Amhara militia Fano as well as Oromo Liberation Army rebels. The situation is further complicated by infighting within the Tigrayan leadership: one faction has forged ties with Asmara, forcing the rival faction to flee to Ethiopia’s capital.
The conflict could expand into a regional conflagration, with Sudan’s war adding to the danger. Asmara backs the Sudanese army, while Addis Ababa has remained neutral but could increase support for the Rapid Support Forces if a new conflict arises. The last full‑scale war between Ethiopia and Eritrea (1998‑2000) caused tens of thousands of deaths; a repeat would be devastating for the region.
Despite these risks, there are reasons for optimism. Neither side can predict the outcome of a costly war, and Ethiopia’s leadership seeks to preserve International Monetary Fund support, which new hostilities would jeopardize. Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa—key players in securing the Pretoria agreement—should shuttle between the two capitals to stress the dangers of conflict. Other influential actors, including the United States, China, and the European Union, should also reinforce this message to prevent a ruinous war.
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