OPEC+ has decided to maintain its current oil output levels following a brief meeting on Sunday. The discussion deliberately avoided the political crises affecting several member countries, including Venezuela, where the United States recently captured President Nicolás Maduro. The decision to keep production unchanged comes despite a sharp decline in oil prices in 2025—over 18 % year‑over‑year, the steepest drop since 2020—largely driven by concerns about oversupply.
The eight OPEC+ members, which together account for roughly half of global oil production, will meet again on 1 February. Nigeria, one of the members, has struggled to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, even after initially reporting a possible increase in its crude‑output allocation. Meanwhile, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have escalated over the long‑standing Yemen conflict, creating the deepest rift between the two former close allies in decades.
Venezuela, home to the world’s largest oil reserves—surpassing even Saudi Arabia—has seen its production fall sharply due to years of mismanagement and sanctions. OPEC+ had raised its output targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025 to regain market share, but the group agreed to pause further hikes for the first quarter of 2026 because demand is relatively low during the northern‑hemisphere winter.
Historically, OPEC has managed internal conflicts by prioritising market management over political disputes. Nevertheless, the bloc now faces multiple challenges: Russian oil exports are declining under U.S. sanctions related to the war in Ukraine, and Iran is grappling with protests and U.S. threats of intervention. The decision to maintain current oil output levels is likely to have significant implications for the global oil market, especially given the ongoing crises affecting several OPEC+ member countries.
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