Tinubu Reforms: IMF, World Bank Praise No Structural Change

A prominent Nigerian economist has stated that international financial institutions’ praise for President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms is consistent with their standard policy criteria, but has cautioned that such measures have historically not delivered structural economic transformation in developing nations.

Professor Akpan Ekpo made these remarks during an interview on Arise Television. He explained that the reforms initiated since President Tinubu took office in May 2023—specifically the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira currency—mirror the typical policy packages advocated by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“The World Bank and IMF’s praise for President Tinubu’s reforms in Nigeria isn’t surprising because these reforms mirror the package or elements of the World Bank and IMF’s reform characteristics,” Prof. Ekpo stated. However, he underscored a critical disconnect, noting, “there’s no developing country that has embarked on these types of reforms and fast-tracked growth and development.”

Prof. Ekpo pointed to the nearly three-year timeline of the reforms as a period for assessment. He argued that key economic indicators, including GDP composition and the Consumer Price Index, show no meaningful shift in the underlying structure of Nigeria’s economy. “The structure of the economy has not changed. Does not change even marginally,” he said, emphasizing that the anticipated shift from a consumption-driven to a production and investment-led model has not materialized.

The professor’s analysis suggests that while the reforms align with the conditionalities often attached to international financial support, their capacity to induce deep, structural change—such as diversification away from oil dependence and robust industrial growth—remains unproven in similar global contexts. His comments frame the current policy trajectory within a broader debate about the suitability of standardized reform templates for diverse developing economies.

The observation raises pertinent questions about the metrics used to evaluate the success of such reforms. While macroeconomic stabilization may be an immediate goal for institutions like the World Bank and IMF, the long-term developmental objective of altering the fundamental composition and productivity of an economy appears, in Prof. Ekpo’s view, unmet in Nigeria’s case so far. This perspective contributes to ongoing discussions about crafting context-specific strategies for sustainable economic transformation in Africa’s largest economy.