Billionaire businessman Femi Otedola has forecast that Nigeria’s currency, the naira, could strengthen to below ₦1,000 per US dollar before the end of 2026. He attributes this potential appreciation primarily to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery achieving full production capacity.
Otedola, Chairman of First HoldCo, made the projection in a statement on his verified social media account. He congratulated Aliko Dangote on the refinery’s ramp-up to its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, calling it a “major turning point” for Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook, particularly for stabilising the foreign exchange market.
The refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily will drastically reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, which has been a significant drain on foreign reserves. Otedola stated that with domestic refining now operational after decades of dependence on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly, leading to meaningful naira appreciation.
This follows Dangote’s announcement of a $12 billion expansion project. The planned expansion will increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, alongside producing 2.4 million tons of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tons of Linear Alkyl Benzene. Dangote confirmed work has already commenced, with the goal of making the facility the world’s largest refinery, surpassing India’s Jamnagar Refinery.
The Dangote refinery, which began operations in 2024, is Africa’s largest. Its emergence has already altered Nigeria’s energy sector, where the state-owned refineries have long been inoperative, forcing the country to import nearly all its petrol despite being a major oil producer. The privately-run refinery has driven down local pump prices. It also exports aviation fuel to markets including the US, Europe, and Brazil, with further export potential across West and East Africa.
The refinery’s dominant position has raised some monopoly concerns. However, Dangote has indicated plans for an initial public offering on the Nigerian Stock Exchange next year to broaden ownership and enhance market transparency. A second private refinery is also under construction by billionaire Abdulsamad Rabiu’s BUA Group.
Otedola’s projection rests on the premise that the refinery’s full-scale operations will conserve substantial foreign exchange. The naira has faced sustained depreciation in recent years due to high import bills and chronic dollar shortages. Analysts note that while the refinery is a transformative development, other structural economic factors and policy consistency will also influence the currency’s trajectory. The expected foreign exchange savings from reduced fuel imports are seen as a critical step toward alleviating a key pressure point on the naira.
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